Even in the Immediate Aftermath of the Tucson Blood Libel, Obama Would Only Win 44% of the Vote Without Leaners Against Governor Palin in Michigan

This poll of Michigan voters was conducted at around the worst possible time one could conduct a poll about Governor Palin considering that she had just been blood libeled at around this time. It was also conducted at the best possible time for Obama considering that the media went into a greater overdrive than usual to prop up his failed presidency at around this time.

However, even during this period, this poll of Michigan voters shows that excluding leaners, Obama would only win 44% of the vote in the Wolverine state against Governor Palin (see question 13). Obama won over 56% of the vote against Senator McCain in 2008. The margin by which he is defeating the Governor in this poll is nearly the same margin by which he defeated McCain in 2008 excluding or including leaners.

What this poll suggests is that Palin’s deficit against the man who engaged in a land transaction with convicted felon Tony Rezko is closer to 7-10 points nationally than the ridiculous twenty-point margins that some polls have shown. If she really was down twenty points to Obama nationally, then her deficit in Michigan would be at least 27 points. Keep in mind too that her deficit in Michigan and nationally may have shrunk since this poll was conducted as this poll was taken at the absolutely worst possible time for the Governor and the best possible time for Obama.

Michigan is clearly a Democrat Party stronghold on the presidential level and is a state that recently has not been particularly favorable to Republicans with strong ties to the evangelical community. Even including leaners in the poll, Obama is only able to win 51% of Michigan voters against the Governor. With around a sixth of the electorate undecided, there’s room for the Governor to grow a.nd close the margin significantly. She doesn’t have to really come that close in Michigan to win nationally. All she has to do is come within single-digits of Obama in Michigan. You’ll know if the Governor has won nationally if she’s able to keep her deficit in Michigan within single-digits.

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