Categorized | Palin News

CNN Poll Shows that Governor Palin Probably Leads If You Take Huckabee, Trump, and Bachmann Out of the Poll





The good news outweighs the bad news in this CNN poll. Here is how it looks with Huckabee/Trump/Bachmann in the race:

Huckabee 19%
Trump 19%
Palin 12%
Romney 11%
Gingrich 11%
Paul 7%
Bachmann 5%
Daniels 3%
Pawlenty 2%
Santorum 2%
Barbour 0%

The bad news is that she isn’t leading but that’s to be expected considering that she’s taken a step back from the spotlight and because of the media narrative that she’s not interested in pursuing the presidency for financial reasons.

The good news is that her numbers have stayed stable since the last CNN poll and that Mitt Romney’s support has dropped by around 40% since the last CNN poll. But Trump’s support has nearly doubled.

Even better news comes from the crosstabs. They show that she’s probably leading if you take out the Huckabee/Trump/Bachmann trio:

Huckabee 24%
Palin 16%
Romney 16%
Gingrich 16%
Paul 9%
Daniels 4%
Pawlenty 3%
Santorum 2%
Barbour 0%

Now, CNN didn’t actually check what would happen if they took Mike Huckabee out of the poll as it should have considering that Mike Huckabee is clearly not running. But the best-case scenario for Palin in a poll, other than her leading, is to be even with Romney even with Mike Huckabee in the race. In this scenario, it all comes down to who’s better able to win the Huckabee vote and most reasonable people will conclude that she has a better shot at winning Huckabee’s vote than Romney.



Tags: ,

Comment Policy: The Editors reserve the right to delete any comments which in their sole discretion are deemed false or misleading, profane, pornographic, defamatory, harassment, name calling, libelous, threatening, or otherwise inappropriate. Additionally, the Editors reserve the right to ban any registered poster who, in their sole discretion, violates the terms of use. Do not post any information about yourself reasonably construed as private or confidential. Conservatives4Palin and its contributors are not liable if users allow others to contact them offsite.

  • Rogue2012andbeyond

    I wish you folks at C4P would update stories on Sarah Palin on a regular basis.

    PALIN 2012 !!!! PALIN 2012 !!!! PALIN 2012 !!!! PALIN 2012 !!!! PALIN 2012 !!!! PALIN 2012 !!!!

    • TorpedoVindicator

      $Palin: 2013 to 2014 and a half.

  • danielvito

    Ian, I posted this on the open thread, but c4p needs to call out politico for lieing about this poll they reported on.

    This is an example of how politically dishonest Pollutico is and the malicious hatred they have toward Sarah. They post this article about the CNN new poll.

    http://www.politico.com/news/s

    they say;

    In a number that confirms the continuing slide of Sarah Palin’s political stock, the former Alaska governor is a distant second place, at 12 percent, while Mitt Romney gets 11 percent, tied with Newt Gingrich for third place.

    Facts;

    *Sarah’s poll numbers are EXACTLY the same from the 3/23 CNN poll
    *No mention that Romney dropped 7 points and Gingrich dropped 4 points in three weeks.

    This is bias reporting. It’s a lie, how can Sarah be sliding when her rating are the same.

    C4P, you need to post this as a distortion that it is. The only reason to lie is the hatred they have for Sarah. We need to call them on this.

    • RWRFAN

      The only way to stop the Pollutico nonsense is for Sarah to declare.

      I think her stategy is a good one:
      Romney declares yesterday and the snoring got louder.
      Bachmann is being marginalized for being contradictory about the recent budget fiasco.
      Pawlenty, haven’t heard a word from him that matters since declaring.
      Newt, going nowhere fast.
      Huck, just pissed off conservatives and the TP with his ‘can’t shut down the government’. let’s all get along crap.

      She essentially lets her competition destroy themselves with the base without having to burn her bridges.

      Smart lady…LUV THE GOV!!

      Palin/Ryan 2012.

      • danielvito

        Excellent points, but we need to challenge Pollutico when they lie. That will discredit them!

      • Steven

        I absolutely agree. I think her timeframe has to be beyond June. By then Trump, Bachmann, Daniels, Huntsman, Gingrich and yes Huckabee will be forced to make decisions. At that point people will be begging her to run. Another thing is to see how the budget fights work themselves out. It’s likely it does drag on through the summer and into the fall concerning 2012. But it will be interesting to see how it moves along. Lastly I think declaring in the midst of summer when gas prices are likely to be at their peak this year would also be timely. Right now consumers are feeling the pinch and soon the economy as a whole will feel the bite of higher oil prices. Sarah is the most credible voice on the energy issue and people in Iowa will be very attentive to her message while paying almost $5 a gallon than anyone else in the field.

        • RWRFAN

          Not only will they have to decide whether they’re in or out, the focus of attention and the opportunity for unforced errors by the others increases as well.

          Trump is doing yeoman’s work right now. He’s in the MSM and Obama’s face big time. Instead of telling him to shut up, let him work over Obama’s kidneys a little to soften him up even further for the Palin coup de gras!!

          I have to say, the wait is killing me!

          LUV THE GOV!!

          Mario Grippi, Member
          Berkshire Wilton Partners, LLC
          15 River Road, Suite 225
          Wilton, CT 06897
          (O) 203.761.9943
          (F) 203.762.0457
          mario.grippi@berkshireconstruction.com

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Pete-Petretich/100002088167892 Pete Petretich

        Palin/Ryan has been one of my favorite combinations for months! It’s not the ONLY one I like, but don’t get me started…

        ALSO: Once she declares and builds endorsements and teams then many more things will crystalize. Sarah will never stand alone! Have you noticed that the people out to destroy her always try to isolate her?

        • Carmelo Junior

          Once she announces Bachmann will fade away. The GOP base’s woman is Sarah Palin not Bachmann.

  • http://conservapost.tumblr.com Daniel Bruski

    I believe if Sarah Palin announces that she’s running, the polls would switch to her favor. At least that’s what I think would happen….

    • technopeasant

      The polls (except for Rasmussen and pollsters that use the LIKELY VOTER model) will NEVER switch. Get used to it.

  • latinchic

    A cool thing I really like about a crowded GOP field…is that the attacks on her will be minimized because Dems & the media have to go after so many candidates.

    • techo555

      I expect there will be media attacks on others but I still see them primarily concentrating on Sarah. But what’s most imporant is to look at which GOP contender gets the most positive press and MSM attention. Because one of them will. Maybe not right at the start after declaring, but he/she should be revealed as time goes on. That’s who the Obama WH wants to run against because that’s who they think they can beat. The WH might go in wanting to face one candidate who starts off with generally positive press to only change their minds midstream. The positive MSM attention fades for one and picks up for another the WH has decided is a better bet to face in the Presidential election. And the Obama WH, in collusion with the MSM, will plant positive stories to woo GOP voters into voting for that candidate to guarantee he/she gets the nomination. Like they did for McCain who started picking up steam, along with more positive media press, as the campaign wore on.

      So basically, whomever in the GOP field is liked, endorsed and backed most by the MSM is the person Palin needs to run against. The others are fairly unimportant because they aren’t the ones the Obama reelection campaign and MSM will lie, cheat, defraud on behalf off to make sure wins the nomination.

  • PCR1

    The only reason that Huckabee would have to run is to elect Romney, something that he dreads.

    If the assumption is correct that he will not in fact run, then I believe that Governor Palin will win because once the campaigning starts, Trump’s support will melt away faster than snow on a hot tin roof.

    Trump’s supporters are in the main a protest vote by those who do not believe that Obama was born in this country – a fair assumption, in the prevailing circumstances – and are justly annoyed that this matter is not receiving the scrutiny that it deserves.

    But over time, these will drift away from Trump once the novelty of his candidacy wears off, aided in no small part by Trump himself, who will simply talk himself out of contention.

    And this assumes that he will run – a huge IF!

    • Ryan

      Huck stayed in the game during the 2008 primaries to keep Mittens out. As for these different polls being conducted, they’re including so many candidates to keep Sarah’s numbers down. Once the field narrows, her numbers will go up, within and outside the Republican party. Someone else said here at C4P that her support is potentially broader and deeper than any candidate for President in 30 years. There’s no way Obama can survive that.

      • PCR1

        Governor Palin has a sizable hard core base of loyal and enthusiastic supporters from all over the country, even blue states, and including all ethnic groups, who will stick by her no matter what – and contribute generously.

        No other candidate on the right has anything to match it.

        From that secure base she can expand her support outwards, but without it, that would not be possible.

        Governor Palin alone has it, none of the others do.

        That is why Sarah has the winning cards here!

      • Carmelo Junior

        The key here is the campaign, the crowds, the grassroots, the element of excitement. Poll numbers are meaningless. When Sarah starts filling stadiums in Iowa, New Hamphire and South Carolina with supporters what CNN will poll then?

  • technopeasant

    CNN is simply an extension of the Obama WH and does its bidding. The powers to be have decided that both Huckabee and Trump need to be in the race to take down Palin. At least if one gets in and one doesn’t, there is still a chance that with others bleeding votes away from Palin that that Huck or Trump could squeak through. But without Huck or Trump in the mix, Palin would have the field to herself.

    • unseen1

      only problem is Trump is taking votes away from Mitt not Palin

  • WEL2

    I believe Donald Trump is probably a stalking horse for Hillary Clinton. I suspect he will try to fatally damage Obama and to cause as much difficulty as possible for the stronger GOP presidential contenders.

    He may very well become a candidate for the Republican nomination and use that position to cause as much harm as possible to the Republican candidates, especially to the one who receives the nomination. As a Republican candidate he could send the other candidates off on political rabbit trails, pulling them away from substantive issues. He could also be Hillary’s attack dog.

    If Hillary becomes the 2012 Democrat nominee, Trump will probably run as an independent, focusing his attacks on the Republican nominee. If Obama and Palin are the nominees, Trump will probably help Obama by running as an independent who attacks Obama and Palin, making his sharper attacks on Palin, trying to clear the way for Hillary in 2016. Hillary’s stalking horse.

    “Asked about Hillary Clinton, Trump praised the former first lady, saying he thought she was ready to be commander-in-chief. . . She’s (Hillary) ‘very talented, very smart. She’s a friend of mine, so I’m a little bit prejudiced,’ he said. ‘She’s a very, very capable person and I think she’ll probably be the nominee.’" (Trump, during an appearance on CNN’s “Situation Room,” March 16, 2007, reported at WorldNetDaily.com)

    • WEL2

      If Trump begins to act like a Hillary Clinton stalking horse, conservatives need to call him out.

      • teledude

        He already acts like a Hillary Clinton stalking horse. I can’t beleive some of the people on our side.

        The guy is NO republican and sure as h*ll NO conservative. He is playing games, and the benificiary will be Hillary. Your initial post had it exactly right,

        He’s trying to take out Obama, then will run as an independent to split the Republican vote so Hillary can win. Remember Ross Perot? This is Clinton SOP.

      • Carmelo Junior

        The big stalking horse in the 2008 Dem primaries was John Edwards!

    • Dawn Elle

      I think he is a stalking horse for us actually! LOL Hey I heard him defend Sarah for all the attacks that have come her way many times! I think he LIKES Sarah! And I think he’s disappointed in Hillary. jmo. maybe I’m projecting. lol

  • section9

    While there is a bit of putting lipstick on a pig going on here, given the relentless bad news that we have been hearing lately, Ian’s point holds water. If you remove Huckabee, MOST of his voters go to Palin. Not all. Some will go to Bachmann.

    Bachmann is a stalking horse who is working for Mittens and American Crossroads. You all need to get present with the fact that she is probably going to stay in the reace.

    Trump MAY stay in the race and can self-finance. Palin will have to find a way to go around him instead of going at him. If they can come to an understanding, Trump will gladly attack Mittens instead of her.

    The long term beneficiary may be Pawlenty in this mix. He is boring, but Nick Ayers,his manager, is counting on the American people being exhausted with "celebrity" candidates like Obama who can’t get things done. Pawlenty’s problem is that he doesn’t exude leadership as Palin does.

    She would be wise to emphasize her leadership bones. She lights up every room she’s in and every stage she’s on. The worst thing she could try to do is to try and become a wonk.

    • blerch

      Great last point. Show a mastery of the issues, but don’t sound like some egghead from a DC think tank. One of her many great strengths is that she can take complex issues and simplify them so everyone can understand them. Only extremely intelligent people have that ability.

    • PhillyCon

      To your last point as well, Rush touched upon this today. Trying to please people or be someone your are not, never ends well. He tied in the shutdown politics with Boehner’s refusal to become like Newt. Rush’s overall point was that Republicans and/or conservatives are searching for something they will never get-media accolades and hosannas. The harder they try, the more impossible it becomes.

      Palin should just be herself.

    • Carmelo Junior

      Agree, Pawlenty, not Romney will be the beneficiary if Sarah does not runs and Bachmann starts her gaffes in Iowa.

  • unseen1

    hmm I was saying the same thing over at hotair. Seems we both saw the same thing in this poll. Th epoll was great news for Palin supporters. The fact she has stayed even in support means her base is not leaving her.

    • BoxHead1

      Yeah, I thought it was great news also. That %5 in Florida scared me. 12-16% is right there.

      I’m doing some Palin volunteering at a taxday rally so I can finally find out what actual blood and flesh people are thinking. I can’t deal with these contradictory polls anymore.

  • http://israpundit.com Ted Belman

    An Internet poll sponsored by Newsmax.com reveals that Americans overwhelmingly favor Donald Trump as their preferred candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

    Online participants in the poll, which has drawn more than 550,000 responses, also support Trump by a wide margin in a head-to-head matchup with President Barack Obama.

    If the election were held today, Trump would beat Obama in a landslide, 68 to 13 percent. But that lead is just as sizeable when Trump faces off against the best and the brightest in the oft-mentioned field of GOP contenders for 2012.

    http://www.israpundit.com/archives/35257#more-35257
    Unbelievable.

    • http://www.solitudebooks.com/ Dan C

      That is a complete joke. It is not even in the ballpark of reality.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HBBC6N4RKU4MZWRUEMABECQUUE Patriot Games

    Freedom of speech always. Some people think it’s better not to talk about why Palin hasn’t announced yet. Bottom line is everyone should talk about whatever they want. A good reason to talk about this now is that Romney is in, and he’s her only obstacle, so where is she? Whom else is she waiting for? She has repeatedly mentioned that if there were another candidate very similar to her who could win, that would be okay with her. That in itself sems strange, maybe just a holding action, There is no one else like her who can win. Huckabee? He is NOT like her, so that’s that. Even if he were, he might wait to decide until a week before the Iowa caucuses because if Huck runs, it’ll be
    a shoestring operation.
    It’s really up to Sarah now to decide very soon whether she’ll seize this chance of a lifetime or pass on it. Only she can answer that. It would be tremendously disappointing and puzzling if she passes–probably seal the re-election of America’s Worst President Ever. But it’s time to show up the libs, commies, ankle-biters and everyone else trying to discourage her or end the suspense. We’re heading towards May. Those early primaries roll around quickly.

    • sarahpalinrocks2

      Patience is a virtue. She is getting her team and campaign together as I type.

      If she weren’t running, she would have a ton of speeches lined up for the rest of the year. She could have done a second season of her SPAK tv show. Do you think she went to India & Israel on a whim? Think about it.

      • jeffo1

        You are spot on!
        Sarah being the sharpest knife in the drawer not to mention gorgeous, is no doubt in the final stages of preparation. Remember she said her way of running a campaign was uncoventional?
        We need to expect the unexpected and just be a bit more patient. She’s running just as sure as obamas a one term disgrace.
        I love Sarah
        Sarah2012

    • John_Frank

      Troll.

  • PEC111

    I may have concerns of Sarah running but it has nothing to do with the Polls. My fear is more she hired a Chief of Staff in February nut there has been no word of any other hires. Granted she does not have to realease her SarahPac results until July and technically she could be hiring but not going public with the hires, but as of right now her Staff is still a skeleton staff as far as we know.

    • sarahpalinrocks2

      Why would she want to tip her hand this early? Let the wannabe clowns like Trump and Mitt jump in first – she can size up the competition. Mitt only announced an exploratory committee yesterday. No one has gone all in as far as I know.

      • PEC111

        If she is getting a Staff behind the scenes then fine. Just she hired a Chief of Staff and to date I haven’t heard of moves being made. Note I caveat with as far as I know, and behind the Palin scenes that is very little.

      • http://marconidarwin.myopenid.com Marconi Darwin

        Yes, keep it a secret. It is way too early to run for AK governor. People remember

    • xthred

      Didn’t you watch Sun Tzu’s The Art of War?

      • PEC111

        Yes and I hope she is, but I also know who I believe would be on that team and no even remote hints of having been hired. Of course from somebody there was an interesting Tweet yesterday. Very little thing but sometimes little things mean big things.

  • Guest

    The polls as i’ve stated on other threads, have taken on the same meaningless trajectory as their lamestream media cousins and should be regarded with the same disdain and lack of credibility.Even Rassmussen at this stage, is push (making results up) polling to move public opinion in the direction his ruling class clients want. Ten days to two weeks out from a caucus,primary or general election,he and perhaps Zogby,will start conducting polls of ‘likely’ voters to maintain their. credibility. Untill then,every poll should be considered as tainted. As far as Trump is concerned,i believe He is simply being a Patriot.He has finally realized that Obama/Soros are out to destroy this country and along with it,Trumps wealth, freedom and lifestyle.What’s remarkable is ,95% of the Republican legislators and most of Trumps well-educated,wealthy celebrity friends still haven’t come to the same conclusion,the same conclusion i might add that most of us came to over two years ago.Trump’s main goal is not the Presidency,it’s stopping Obama from destroying this country.To that end ,Trump is using the ‘feint’ of a Presidential run,as an excuse to bring up a legitimate hot button issue (what’s on the birth certificate), in an effort to stop this madman from destroying us.

  • c4pfan

    I disagree that Huckabee isn’t running. I bet he will.

    Plus, all these polls tell me is that there isn’t a front runner and that Huckabee is still doing well makes me want to dump the GOP for good.

    • Guest

      Have you seen the Huckster lately? It sure looks like he is packing on the pounds! If he is going for the Christy vote he has to do more than look like him, and can you ever imagine Mr. "milk-toast" taking a tough, hard, stand on anything short of SET MY PRISONERS FREE!?

  • ripcurl2121

    why is garbage like this wasted in this site? unreal

    • http://marconidarwin.myopenid.com Marconi Darwin

      Well, that’s like asking why is there so much trash at the town dump?

  • Leroy Whitby

    In my opinion, Sarah Palin’s best chance at the nomination lies in building up Pawlenty versus Romney. I think they will appeal to the same type of voter. A vote for Pawlenty is likely a vote taken from Romney. And, bonus, Pawlenty didn’t support socialized medicine.

  • BostonBruin

    One thought I had about MB yesterday was how she would be able to run for the Presidency unless she were willing to resign from Congress. With the exception of Daniels and Barbour, all the other candidates will be spending 100% of their time on the campaign trail. How could MB hope to compete unless she resigns? Is she willing to do that? We’ll find out in June.

    • Jean_A

      You are going to see her poll numbers start to drop in MN. When Christie was out and about and spending more time on TV shows than doing his job the poll numbers dropped.

      MB doesn’t even go home for the weekends anymore. Her time is spent in Iowa, NH, or SC.

    • PCR1

      I don’t think she has to, but if so, she would definitely not – not – resign!

      I do not believe that she will run.

      Nor will "0″ polling Barbour.

  • http://911dj.com Greg Legakis

    News:

    Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump had a one-on-one meeting last week, a sit-down that left the former Arkansas governor with the impression that the developer is indeed going to run for president.

    The get-together came as Huckabee, multiple sources said, has been quietly meeting with donors in New York for the past month as he himself weighs a run.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/53006.html#ixzz1JKzKEJrl

    • http://marconidarwin.myopenid.com Marconi Darwin

      There isn’t enough crazy to go around, it’d seem with those two, Palin and Bachmann

      • TorpedoVindicator

        Ramp it up a bit, please. Just for me?

  • Laddie_Blah_Blah

    FWIW, it looks like Huck is still thinking about it, but the Donald may be scaring him off:

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/53006.html

    Huck apparently thinks Trump is going to run. Not sure what that means for Sarah, if anything. Interesting that Huck is going to the same big money Wall St. crowd as Obi Wanna, Mittens, and all the rest of them, except for Sarah. She is depending on us, and we cannot let her down. It appears to me that every other candidate will be beholding to Wall St. the same way that the Prince of Barfness is now, including the Republicans, save for one.

    • friskyness

      Trump is in there to stop Palin or any strong candidate. The GOP don’t want to beat Obama in 2012. They are waiting for 2016. Well, I have news for them, 2016 will be too late. A republican may never be elected again as president, if Obama has a second term. The citizens will be so dependent on the government, that no spending cuts will be allowed without riots. See what you have done GOP? I bet you are proud of yourselves!

  • xthred

    You don’t need a poll to know which way the wind is blowing.

    • http://marconidarwin.myopenid.com Marconi Darwin

      I just farted upstream

      • TorpedoVindicator

        Silent but deadly?

Open Thread

Governor Palin’s Tweets