Categorized | Palin News

Even the Daily Kos Pollster Shows Obama Only Winning 50% Against Palin in a Democrat Party Stronghold





Even the Daily Kos pollster shows that Obama is only able to win 50% of the vote against Governor Palin in the Democrat Party stronghold of Pennsylvania. He won almost 55% of the vote in the state in 2008.

If you put aside Tom Jensen’s spin, what the crosstabs will show is that there are almost four times as many undecided McCain voters as there are Obama voters. What that means is that around 60% of the undecided voters in the Palin-Obama matchup in Pennsylvania are people who already voted for her for Vice-President. Only 17% of the undecideds in the Palin/Obama matchup are Obama voters from 2008. It’s clear that she’ll win an overwhelming percentage of the undecided voters.

No Republican has won Pennsylvania since 1988 and Governor Palin will not need to win the state to defeat Barack Obama. If the margin between her and Obama is five points in Pennsylvania, she’ll effectively be tied with him nationally.

The other good news from the poll is that she was the only one of the four major Republicans to see her favorable/unfavorable numbers among Republicans go up from the last Pennsylvania poll that the Daily Kos/SEIU pollster conducted. Here are the changes in their respective favorable/unfavorable numbers since January (favorable/unfavorable numbers among Republicans in the January poll are in parentheses):

Palin: 60/30 (58/32)
Huckabee: 60/23 (62/19)
Newt: 48/30 (53/29)
Romney: 47/27 (52/25)



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  • danielvito

    Thanks for posting, Ian! This is starting to become a trend. Sarah isn’t even campaigning yet. Be optimistic!

    Accept no copy!

    Sarah 2012!

  • PEC111

    Only down 11 and hasn’t even campaigned? Obama better be woried.

    • Sapwolf

      You know his camp is worried.

  • $8196935

    Thank you for playing, "I am an Obama lemming"
    You may collect your prize on the way out

  • Ianlazaran

    In the Obama-Romney matchup, there are a lot of undecided Obama voters who will end up voting for Barack Obama.

    There are very few undecided Obama voters left in the Palin-Obama matchup. Once you allocate the undecideds, Obama wins PA against her by a 53-47 margin, a margin that would mean a small lead for Obama nationwide.

    • $8196935

      Vinnie flew in on his pig

      • VinnieF

        I just shared some of the results of the poll. Why are you being so harsh?

        • John_Frank

          Because you are a palingates troll.

        • Sapwolf

          Because you’re foolish and don’t understand why those numbers mean Obama will lose in 2012.

          Sarah does not need PA.

    • Sapwolf

      If Sarah gets 47% of PA, she has won. She’ll take IN, OH, VA, NC, FL and probably NH, IA and WI.

      Remember, Sarah has not even begun to fight.

  • danielvito

    VinnieF, take a look at this attachment

    http://freedomslighthouse.net/2012-presidential-election-polls-pennsylvania/

    Sarah actually cuts Obama’s margin in Pa. from 15 points to 11 points in 3 months from the same pollster. Further, a different pollster, McCall/Mulhenberg, Sarah cuts the lead from 28 points to 11 points in one month.

    If you can’t see this as positive, you have your eyes closed. But then again you are a troll.

  • john norton

    the gov. has the right message and yes even to all americans no matter what state there is sunami coming folks,you betcha.

  • gahanson

    Once Palin rolls out her full scale campaign, things will be very different. Right now so many republicans have fallen for the msm’s pronouncements that she isn’t running, so they aren’t taking her seriously in these polls. The other factor may very well be that the polls themselves are usually push polls designed to lower her numbers for propaganda purposes.

    If there is any doubt how Palin will fare against Romney and the others, just think back to CPAC when Romney’s speech was upstaged by the appearance of a Palin inpersonator. If an inpersonator can cause such a disruption of his speech, just think what the real Palin will do. Also, remember that Romney and Huck both backed out of SRLC last year because they didn’t want to be upstaged by her.

    I know I’ve posted this link several times over the last week or two, but if anyone wants to see what gives the dems and their gop inside the beltway buddies nightmares, check out the pictures of some of Palin’s rallies in 2008.

    http://www.jeffhead.com/palin/palin-hiding.htm

  • john norton

    vinnieF when the deck is stacked you get what you get use your grey matter and when you do you will see the truth.

    • VinnieF

      I would reply but I have no idea WTF you’re trying to say.

      • Sapwolf

        Because you are not examing the underlying trends across the country and the electoral mix.

        My guess is your young and don’t get it yet.

  • John_Frank

    VinnieF is a palingates troll. Do not feed the trolls.

  • danielvito

    When you explain away Obama’s 55% unfavorability nationally I’ll take a stab at it.

    • VinnieF

      Actually, it’s only 48% according to Fox. I’ll admit that’s not great, but I can assure you that he’s getting the nomination. :)

      • Sapwolf

        Of course he is, but what’s the point if he can’t win the general? The numbers show Sarah will beat him. If she only loses 53-47 in PA without any campaigning yet, then she will defeat him.

  • AmsterdamExpat

    Fellow Palinistas, I’d suggest, if I may, that we not feed — reply to — the troll who’s shown up on this thread. If he really believed what he says, he’d have no reason to appear here at all. His very presence belies his words, something which must have penetrated even his dim mind from time to time.

    Flag him — but don’t give him the satisfaction of a direct response.

    P.S. If it’s true as many have surmised that trolls are paid for each response they manage to provoke, to refuse to answer them directly is to help defund them and thus to incentivize them to find some other, slightly less ignoble sort of "well-paying job" (to quote the one on this thread). (And who knows, perhaps to take a long bath as well, to wash away the stench. Discussion is difficult when the smell is so overwhelming.)

    • http://www.solitudebooks.com/ Dan C

      Yeah good idea. I won’t do it anymore. I say ban straight away as well.

    • citizenG100

      Wise words

    • VinnieF

      Yes, good idea. We wouldn’t want real discussion or debate.

      The reason I posted is that this article is misleading on two accounts. First, your candidate actually shows as the worst of all of the Republicans in the poll. Secondly, there’s no reference to the Daily Kos at all. I couldn’t find any mention of this poll on their site.

      • crunchingk

        speaking of debates your boy wonders gonna get a chunk of his head ripped off by the cuda !!!!!cant wait to see a grown man who bowls 37 try to defend his sorry ass record against a stellar record baracudda haha!!!

    • narciso

      No, it may be like with the Huff Po bloggers, they do it for free.

    • Sapwolf

      OK. New policy. No troll feeding. Got it. :-)

  • http://www.solitudebooks.com/ Dan C

    You are pathetic. You are soooooooooooo sure you are right, and yet you waste your time coming here. Do you have a job? Do you have a family? Do you have anyone that can stand the sight of you? If so, why would you not go spend time with them instead of wasting your time here? Are you really that deranged?

  • palinsupporter1

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5il-7COiRQUJ9kbLkZ3gg4nrlac5Q?docId=CNG.dcd81b51497966fd4c6461748e63e3ee.921

    Thank God we had the Republicans in Congress cut the 100 billion , no wait, 61 billion, no wait, 38.5 billion, no wait, 18 billion, no wait, 15 billion in this years budget like they promised to do in their pledge to get elected. I feel so safe with John Boehner as Speaker.

    • palinsupporter1

      But we really should be grateful that they lied in saying what they would cut and cut what they could because as Boehner has said 1000 times and John Thune just said on Cavuto they are only 1/2 of 1/3 of the government and they really can’t do anything, except… wait.. oh yeah that’s right, all spending and fiscal legislation is constitutionally mandated to originate in the house. Oh, well that doesn’t matter because the 2012 budget is what really matters, who cares if we are 1.6 trillion in the hole this year.. there’s always next year.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_377ED42ISJIFXSCTSQSLO25U4Y Ric

        Rush says John Boehner is a nice guy… but why is he the speaker?

        He needs to go to the woodshed – NOW.

        Much more work for the TEA party now…

        BTW – Techno – would you happen to know what percentage of the USA is TEA party or TEA party friendly?

        I have heard the number is 62% – if this is so… we need to nudge the speaker out for being totally spineless… and an emotional basket case!

        Also, if the number is 62% or really above 50%… I think Sarah has this in the bag (if she wants it) based upon her power in the 2010 elections. I am sure the LEFT knows this and continue to come up with as many ‘polls’ as they can to try and discourage her.

        • technopeasant

          This figure from Rasmussen about 75 days ago:

          GOP Tea Party members will comprise 40% of the GOP primary voters in 2012.

      • BostonBruin

        The GOP is not 1/2 of 1/3. They have a significant majority in the House and 47% in the Senate. Only 574 days until November 6, 2012.

  • Patrocles

    You giving us a dose of reality??? That’s pretty rich coming from a Trig-Truther. That’s like saying Obama’s stimulus package was a resoundng success.

  • technopeasant

    For those of you not into polls here is the priority I put on polls from the most important to irrelevant:

    1) Does Obama DESERVE to be re-elected or who would you vote for if the 2012 election was magically moved up to today: Obama or the GOP nominee?

    2) Obama’s job approval/disapproval by issues (economy, budget deficit, taxes, healthcare etc)

    3) Obama’s overall job approval/disapproval (the daily tracking polls)

    4) Obama’s approval/disapproval with WHITE, INDEPENDENT and MODERATE voters

    5) 2010 midterm exit polls

    6) Rasmussen weekly generic ballot

    7) Rasmussen national poll of GOP contenders (LIKELY VOTER MODEL)

    8) National polls of GOP contenders using a REGISTERED VOTER model

    9) National polls of GOP contenders using an ADULT model

    10) Any head to head poll with Obama vs the GOP candidates

  • Guest

    So which is is? Less than 50% or 50%? You’ve got two different headers, Lazaran, so make up your mind.

    • Ianlazaran

      Apodoca, I’m talking about two different polls.

      The poll below is a Rasmussen poll where Obama wins 48% against her nationally.

      This thread pertains to a Daily Kos poll in the Democrat Party stronghold of Pennsylvania, where Obama wins only 50% against her.

      • Guest

        Okay, thanks.

  • PEC111

    VinnieF – Let me help you out. 2012 is a Referendum on Obama. Nothing more, nothing less. If he is at 52% Disapproval he will have trouble winning. If he is at 55% the anti-christ could run against him and run. At that Percent it is a giving that he can not do the job. Like, dislike, favorable, unfavorable of the opponent will not matter. Very few people disapprove of somebody and say "well I know this person is proven incompetent but I am going to give them a chance." Sorry doesn’t work that way. It becomes "you know I don’t like this other person and they may be incompetent but I know he is incompetent so I will give the other person a chance."
    What Obama must do is a. Get gas prices under control. His SEC of Energy may want to see them go up with his decent 6 digit salary but the person living paycheck to paycheck watching their summer vacation and Christmas money dissipate and prices go up (transportation of goods) doesn’t see it that way. Way more of them voting than SEC Chu.
    b. Figure out an International Strategy. Not in Iraq but Combat forces in Kuwait ready to go in, Afghanistan (what is our end State?) Libya (What is our purpose and tasks). My 10 year old twins could handle foreign affairs better than this guy.
    c. Unemployment see a. Plus his Haavvaaadd expert staffers said if we toss 800+ billion down the toilet it would never go over 8%. Gas prices will force businesses to cut staff. Economy is still shaky. The guy will average highest unemployment of any President in 20 years. Sorry facts hurt.
    d. Runaway spending and still unpopular healthcare. Can’t sustain. BLUF.

  • crunchingk

    vinnie why you wasting your time with palin shes a joke let her fail !you better get over to a romney site and get attacking him hes the one you gotta fear!!!!!!you are a pathetic joke your fear is your weakness !!!bye the way hows your hero doin on his promises of no war ,closing gitmo and unemployment under 8%???????he played you for a SUCKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • wodiej

    If the Daily Kook has her at 50% then a real poll has her at 75% plus. I don’t give a rip about any poll numbers. The heavenly Father is not equated into any polls and that is what I go by and no one will convince me otherwise. Gov. Palin did not travel down this road by anything but sheer divine intervention and as Jesus as her guide.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_6URBNMP7T2YQ2N3KQ37VN4M7GI Cathy

    I don’t worry about her numbers on most of these polls. I do think that one of the things that is and will continue to help Sarah is appearing on the new Fox Business Network – more people get the opportunity to see her and hear her in response to the issues of today that effect their lives – she has appeared on FBN more recently than on Fox News – I think this helps her.

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