Even the Daily Kos pollster shows that Obama is only able to win 50% of the vote against Governor Palin in the Democrat Party stronghold of Pennsylvania. He won almost 55% of the vote in the state in 2008.
If you put aside Tom Jensen’s spin, what the crosstabs will show is that there are almost four times as many undecided McCain voters as there are Obama voters. What that means is that around 60% of the undecided voters in the Palin-Obama matchup in Pennsylvania are people who already voted for her for Vice-President. Only 17% of the undecideds in the Palin/Obama matchup are Obama voters from 2008. It’s clear that she’ll win an overwhelming percentage of the undecided voters.
No Republican has won Pennsylvania since 1988 and Governor Palin will not need to win the state to defeat Barack Obama. If the margin between her and Obama is five points in Pennsylvania, she’ll effectively be tied with him nationally.
The other good news from the poll is that she was the only one of the four major Republicans to see her favorable/unfavorable numbers among Republicans go up from the last Pennsylvania poll that the Daily Kos/SEIU pollster conducted. Here are the changes in their respective favorable/unfavorable numbers since January (favorable/unfavorable numbers among Republicans in the January poll are in parentheses):
Palin: 60/30 (58/32)
Huckabee: 60/23 (62/19)
Newt: 48/30 (53/29)
Romney: 47/27 (52/25)