Honestly, it’s tough to draw any other conclusion when you look at the numbers. In January, she held a 28-19 lead over Romney among Tea Party members. Today, Trump leads Romney by a 22-15 margin among Tea Party members with the Governor’s support falling to 12% among such voters.
In January, she held a 25-24 over Mike Huckabee, who has decided not to run, among evangelical Christians. Since January, Huckabee has stayed stable with evangelical Christians at 23% while the chump came in second with this group at 18%. You can pretty much guess whose evangelical support Trump is eating into as the Governor’s evangelical support has fallen to 10%.
Trump only takes a marginal percentage of Romney’s support while apparently significantly eating into the Governor’s support among evangelical Christians and Tea Party members, two groups that the Governor will need to do very well with in order to win. While it’s clear that Trump has hurt Bachmann the most, it doesn’t strike me as a good trade-off considering that Bachmann was unlikely to ever gain any real momentum.
The numbers are pretty much the same among Nevada Republican primary voters as Trump appears to be pretty good at turning the minority of Republicans who have a favorable opinion of him into votes and taking Palin’s vote.
The good news is that like Huckabee, Trump is not really considering getting into the race. She’ll need to absolutely clean Romney and Pawlenty’s clocks among Trump/Huckabee voters once both Trump and Huckabee end the charades that they’ve been perpetrating on Republican primary voters. At a minimum, she’ll need to win the Trump/Huckabee bloc by a 2-to-1 margin over Romney/Pawlenty.