Categorized | Open Thread

What Does Governor Palin’s Lead Over Jeff Flake in a Hypothetical Arizona GOP Senate Primary Tell Us About 2012?/Open Thread





The most important thing it tells us is that the Daily Kos pollster is desperate for attention. Nevertheless, I did find its poll results for the Arizona 2012 GOP primary and the Arizona Senate GOP primary for Jon Kyl’s seat interesting. Here were the results:

Arizona Senate GOP primary:

Palin 35%
Flake 33%
Hayworth 11%

Flake 54%
Hayworth 27%

Arizona 2012 GOP primary:

Romney 24%
Palin 12%
Paul 12%
Huckabee 12%
Bachmann 10%
Trump 8%
Pawlenty 5%

The reason why I find these poll numbers interesting is not because I want the Governor to run for the Senate. I find these numbers interesting because this poll strongly suggests that she will benefit when candidates who are obviously not running, such as Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump, formally end their charades and admit they aren’t running. As the field thins and is finally free of credible "conservative" conmen like Huckabee and Trump, the better Palin does. I think it’s fair to infer that the Arizona Senate primary numbers would be what the Arizona GOP presidential numbers would look like once the field thins with Romney getting Flake’s numbers and Bachmann or someone like her getting Hayworth’s numbers. Keep in mind too that the Arizona Republican primary electorate is considered a below-average Republican electorate for the Governor. It’s good news that she could potentially win a Republican electorate that is not necessarily a great fit for her when the field gets smaller.

What else is going on today?



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  • polarfan

    I don’t waste my time with these bogus polls -they’re irrelevant!

    • Carmelo Junior

      DK is hoping Sarah does not makes the move to become America’s first female president and destroy Obama and the whole Demoniac Party.

    • Jesse_Cornish

      Some people I swear would choose what to eat for breakfast based on polls. 

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_NWUI6JH3KWIAFWIWHBZGHPFIN4 Cotton Picker

      Seems every time some idjit wants to get their name in the news, they do some stupid poll or negative story about Sarah Palin.  And therein lies the real story, Sarah Palin is the most newsworthy political figure in America.  Even some obscure unknown twerp sitting in their mother’s windowless basement wearing naught but dirty undies, can get their 15 minutes of questionable fame, so long as they have Sarah Palin’s name front and center.
       

  • excopconservative

    This poll is a last ditch effort to convince Gov. Palin to do something other than run for President. Sorry guys, it was a lame idea.

  • danielvito

    The poll by kos to place Sarah as a senate candidate is used to marginalize her, that she doesn’t have the gravitas to run for prez. You fell into their trap.

  • section9

    Jeebus. People still take the Daily Kos seriously?

  • Quiet_Righty

    I hear that people in Pima County want to secede from Arizona. Who knows, they could become a separate state with their own Governor and Senators. More opporunities for Sarah! Awesome!

    • RefudiateGOPe

      You missed something here. It’s a bunch of Libs who want to secede.

      • Quiet_Righty

        You’ve convinced me that Sarah’s chances for public office, representing Arizona or the breakaway state, are not realistic after all.

        :-(

      • unseen1

        well at least we will get the border fence as the libs build one to keep their people in.

    • crunchingk

      righty ,i hate to rub it in but i sure hope the redwings win tonight and complete the miricle.sorry about the sharks and lakers california is not having a good sports week go wings!!!!

      • Quiet_Righty

        I guess I’ll root for the Dallas Mavericks now.

        • crunchingk

          yes ive got a new slogan ABL anyone but lebron!!!

          • Reckoner_3

            Lebron might win though. Did you like Lebron before his "decision" crap?

            • crunchingk

              of course the guy is a spectacular bball player,however he is a bum as aperson,i have many many storys that our media has brought to our attention .he is a premadonna and a spoiled brat and a wimp,but the man can play the game !

        • txpappy

          Excellent Choice!

          Go Sarah/2012 & Beyond

        • Reckoner_3

          Dirk Nowitzki is a good player to root for, I’ve always admired his game, and demeanor.

  • nederlandbill

    A reply to Puma_for_life—Daniels wife left him and abandoned their
    three daughters and married a man in Ca. After four years they divorced
    and she remarried Mitch. See knows this will become a very big
    deal,regarding being tabbed as first lady——————-It won’t be
    good!!

    • Sapwolf

      You have got to be kidding me.

      • puma_for_life

        Ditto…You have ot be kidding me. You hear something new everyday…

      • unseen1

        nope

    • senator20526

      Maybe she thought he was dead and was just moving on in her life……he is a little dull!!!!!

  • crunchingk

    was just listning to hh.some washington nerd said palins powder is not dry on cap &trade!WTF is this nerd talking about?????????

    • palinsupporter1

      I don’t know, these washington people are pathetic liars, and hugh hewitt is one of them!

      • palinsupporter1

        Gov. Palin is nothing but stellar on cap and trade, she created a sub committee during her tenure as gov. that studied climate change because she lives in a subarctic state. But she has never advocated policy changes because of climate change, unlike pawlenty.

        • unseen1

          plus she has never believed in man-made global warming. She has stated numerous times that the climate is changing in AK and it is a natural cycle.

          • aafan

            She did not say she did not believe in man made global warming. I remember listening to one of videos of her talking about it to Cavuto or some one on Fox even before her announcement. What she said was that the computer models predicting the outcome decades ahead are not certain.

            So it is not about believing or not believeing, just taking the data as they are without spin and managing the risk as represented by the data.

            Risk is a combination of consequence of an event and the probability for it to happen. What Gov Palin was telling the calculation of the probability to occur is not very certain. It is not some thing unusual. UN body till its previous conference had the same view and only in its last conference upgraded the certainity above 90 % requesting action. (Later it turned out Gov Palin was right. That upgrade was done by suppressing data and adverse peer comments and UN ordered a review of the process)

            On the other hand the economic risk and difficulties due to harsh climate change regulation and high energy cost is very probable and more certain making this risk higher.

            Policy/ action should be proportional to the risk. So she was against harsh regulation on climate change and and wanted to remove all stops on drilling she also promoted energy efficiency and alternative energy through incentives  which was proportional to uncertain but some risk of global warming.

            I donot no how she does it, but she always comes up with good Managerial decisions.

      • crunchingk

        they spew fing lies and get away with it man shes got to get a media personASAP!!!!!

        • palinsupporter1

          It wouldn’t do any good at this stage if she hired one person to combate the media they would never sleep. The only way that she can combat the media’s lies is to formally announce and get out there. And Gov. Palin knows that.

      • goethegirl

        I like Hugh Hewitt, but, as in 2010, he is with Romney, a fellow Mormon. Hugh likes Sarah, by the way. He will be in her corner if she gets the nomination.

        • c4pfan

          Hugh is not a Mormon. Beck is.

          As for Hugh, I don’t give a darn if he supports Sarah or not! He’s an idiot when it comes to his trying to pretend he doesn’t care who gets the nomination.

        • txpappy

          Then why didn’t he refute the nonsense about her on cap & trade. Did he just let it stand?

          Go Sarah/2012 & Beyond

    • John_Frank

      See this post over at Hotair:
      http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/11/which-gop-frontrunner-passes-the-cap-and-trade-purity-test/

      These claims are being made to bolster the "credibility of Daniels."

      • crunchingk

        that is pure bs ,your right making something out of nothing to pimp wimpy!she does not support it period!!!!anyway the fact that they are inserting her record into inspection tells me they KNOW shes running!haha

      • goethegirl

        The Hot Air post ends with linking to Gov. Palin’s July 2009 Washington Post piece against cap and trade.

    • RedDaveR

      In the 2008 VP debate she made a statement that she supported capping carbon emissions. But that was McCain’s position which as the #2 on the ticket she had to support. Something similar happened on immigration. These people know full well what a VP candidate has to do, but are applying special rules to Palin. They are being deliberately disingenuous.

      • unseen1

        Palin can thread that needle by saying that was before climategate

  • technopeasant

    Again I think this was a huge unforced error on the part of PPP to even suggest that in a poll for Jon Kyl’s Arizona Senate that Palin would be ahead of a sitting Arizona Congressman in the race among seniors 37% to 33% (remember Palin is NOT a resident of Arizona) while in a different poll of GOP contenders but with the same respondents and the same seniors she is only getting 7% and is even behind Ron Paul.

    And among voters calling themselves VERY CONSERVATIVE Palin is outpolling Flake 43% to 25% but in the poll of GOP contenders among these same conservatives she garners only 14% of the vote.I have heard of voters or respondents who split their votes between Congress and the Presidency but anybody with half a brain knows this is absolutely bizarre and ludicrous. People are simply not schizophrenic to this degree unless of course PPP polled primarily in a mental asylum.

    • unseen1

      Not really. It tends to show that People really like Palin but do not think she is quailified to be POTUS that will be Palin’s greatest hurdle. If she proves to the american people she is quailified she will win in a landslide. And for the life of me I don’t know how she gets from point A to point B with those people except running a great campaign. Maybe some major meetings with world leaders. But I am hoping that her just being on the same stage in debates with t other GOP will be enough

      • exodus2011

        she has definitely got meetings sheduled with Israeli leaders before the end of this year, and maybe some meetings with Europeans too? ….. who knows

         

      • excopconservative

        Obama’s only qualification was that he defeated Hillary in the primaries.  They thought she was qualified and he beat her, so he must be qualified too.  Sarah is way more qualified than any of the other candidates by virtue of her accomplishments.  She has demonstrated decisive leadership as mayor and as governor and now after leaving office as the engineer of many mid-term victories in 2010.

        How to present her record is going to be the key.  In 2008, Rudy Giuliani tried to convey his record and it came off sounding like a broken record, "Back when I was mayor of New York…"  People got tired of it and wanted to hear what his vision for the future was.  He didn’t quite get around to that.  Rudy’s record was much better known than Sarah’s.  His service was in NYC where it got full attention of the media.  Sarah’s record has been treated like a secret that no one was supposed to know.  How she goes about exposing her record will be central to her campaign.

        • stevethird

          If she can create the understanding among the voters that "It’s the energy, stupid!!"  she wins. She’s got that credibility race already won by a couple miles.

  • palinsupporter1

    Donald Trump is working on a policy book. I actually hope he runs because it helps the gov. look mainstream commonsense conservative and not into conspiracy theories. Trump is low in the polls now and when they are in a debate Trump will help palin look serious to those crazy moderates who believe she isn’t.

    • nederlandbill

      . A policy book from a guy who when asked on tuesday said he he did not know what the stars and stripes on the American flag signified.

      • blueniner

        Yikes, Chris Matthews will give him a flunking grade and order him to bone up!…LOL

  • footballchik1

    On strategy do you guys plan on playing up the potential 1st female president angle? We never really talk about it and I don’t really ever hear it talked about on our side like we did with the left and the media about Obama becoming the first african american pres. Is that a good plan to do so ya think?

    • cookboy

      Different loads for different game.

    • crunchingk

      football chick ,i am one of the few that know for a fact this is why the media are out to destroy her!mark my words when she gets the nom i predict woman will flock to her and why not its about damn time!as a guy its very much against our grain to vote for a woman president but i dont look at her as a woman but a great leader with an outstanding record as a executive i believe she can and will easily handle the job!

      • GeraldGoff

        "as a guy its very much against our grain to vote for a woman president "

        I don’t want you to take this personally, but that is the stupidest thing i have read today. 

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Pete-Petretich/100002088167892 Pete Petretich

      In particular I think many Independant and DEMOCRAT women will vote for her. Once they’re actually in the voting booth there will be no New York Times or MSNBC or NPR goons looking over their shoulder, and with that new-found freedom many, many women will put the girl on top!

      I expect many similar surprises once she breaks away from the pack…

    • exodus2011

      I am no expert, but I think that angle screams loud and clear for itself

      Also, I don’t think Gov Palin wants any special treatment – she would want the person with the best ideas for America, the best record at governance, the most trustworthy character, and the best ability to communicate and persuade the electorate to win …..

      regardless of ethicity
      regardless of gender
      regardless of background

      UPDATE:

      AND the best judgement when that 3am call comes through!

      • crunchingk

        exodus,your right on no need to broadcast it it will happen on its own!and you said your a novice to politicts?you sound like a pro!

        • exodus2011

          thanks for the kind words crunchingk

          I am surely a novice in the pol realm, but I also think that a big proportion of it is common-sense, Big Mama Grizzly style!

          *__*

      • Reckoner_3

        regardless of ethicity

        regardless of gender

        regardless of background

        Those things are an afterthought to me.

        It really exposes how superficial the PC left are with their , feel-good, pat-themselves-on-the-back votes, even though they’re pretty prejudiced against blacks & women because that’s all they see in a candidate (i.e. Obama’s glaring negatives did not matter) . With that said, they are important ‘symbolically’ when given the proper respect in the light of past discrimination/history.
        It’s when it’s over done the merits become diluted, ‘the first candidate from American Samoa who is first generation,’ ‘the first candidate with more than just 1/4th Native American blood, ‘ ‘ the first female coach to coach the second division, without coaching third division teams first "

    • unseen1

      Yes it is one of Palin’s aces in the hole. I think the GOp establishment doesn’t want to talk about it. But it does something tha tmost peopel doesn’t understand. It takes Obama’s "historic" run off the table. It makes the white guilt less and if done correctly it will bring many young women into the GOp fold. Maybe some PUMA’s and clinton dems those who don’t have killing babies as their primary goal.

  • lorenzini

    Flake is a good guy. Doesn’t take earmarks either.

    • unseen1

      he is better than McCain and probably better than Kyl.

  • technopeasant
  • section9

    Craig Medred is out with another piece on Palin, this time in response to the Green piece. He still doesn’t like her. It’s typical Medred.

    Nice to see everybody ramping up O4P. Nice shadow organization going on there. I detect movement!

    • crunchingk

      will someone anyone stop the monstrous, materalistic miami heat!!!please save us no fing ring for the queen lequitness!!!!!!

    • unseen1

      You know the increas ein hitpieces this week tells me one thing. Gov Palin has convinced the chattering class she is running.

    • blueniner

      Medred is a lieing punk. You can e-mail him via the Alaska Dispatch, I have, and he answers his e-mail.

  • nederlandbill

    reposted as reply

  • AmsterdamExpat

    I posted this link on the Romneycare thread but it could just as well go here.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/12/scott-brown-damn-that-romney-health-care-speech-was-courageous/

    Scottie, we hardly knew ye.

    • unseen1

      it will of course be changed into a Palin thread soon. We can only say Epic fail so many times before interest wanes…

  • http://praying4commonsense.blogspot.com nala3325

    Pollsters are coming out with sorts of polls, sometimes just capitalizing on Gov. Palin’s name to get some attention. But polls or not, the question to us Palin supporters is:

    "Have we done our part in helping her lay the groundwork for 2012?"
    "Have we visited SarahPAC.com and donated?"

    I know that some people would like to wait until she has formally announced before contributing financially, not wanting their money to go to candidates that might possibly turn their backs on Sarah Palin. That’s completely understandable. But I think, we also need to show her she’s got the numbers behind her. So even if we just contribute $2, $5 or $10, it’ll show her that her army of Davids is well and alive and ready to go. No matter how the election shapes up, she will be faced with three Goliaths (Obama team, MSM and the GOP establishment). She needs all the warm bodies and boots on the ground that she could muster.

    Mama Grizzly is calling … are you going to answer the call? Go to http://sarahpac.com/

    • palinsupporter1

      Also if Palin is hiring staff like Peter Schweizer behind the scenes we need to help her support the payroll for that staff!!!! I think C4P should have a Money Bomb!

      • crunchingk

        ps some of us have no money right now we gotta waste any extra on gas because of the idiot in the wh that wont drill !!!!!!

        • palinsupporter1

          True, True, donate only if you can spare some money, I am a college student with no income except federal work study that goes to my tuition, but I try to give 20.12 a month!!!

          • http://praying4commonsense.blogspot.com nala3325

            Mama Grizzly’s proud of ya! 

      • Carmelo Junior

        I ain’t donating a peny still she announces. My money goes to help elect my first Female President not to pay staffers.

        • palinsupporter1

          She can’t just announce a run for Pres one day and not have any staffers or organization in place that would be extremely foolish. She needs our help!

          • palinsupporter1

            You can donate as little as 5.00. every little bit helps!

            • unseen1

              You have to watch the real small donations with the transaction fees and accounting sometimes a small donation will cost the person money. I wouold say $10.00 should be the goal as a min. But $5.00 will still give a positive but a majority of the money will be eaten up by fees. anything less that $5.00 I think would cost her money not give her money. $20.12 is a good round figure.

        • Quiet_Righty

          Junior, I’ve seen your prophecy blog and I keep up with it. You don’t mention Pastor Mark Arnold’s experience in 2008. Do you know what I’m talking about?

  • M_Minnesota

    OT/ Breaking- A reporter recently asked the President why he and the First Lady seemingly want to break down the morale of our men and women in blue by having a artist at the White House who sympathizes with Cop Killers. "The danger of this type of behavior would ruin morale and make

    the cops much like the cops of Gotham". Said the reporter. The President turned to the reporter. smiled and said "Why so serious?" /s

    • crunchingk

      what an narccasistic sickining puke!!!!!!!id really like to see him after palin enters the wh!that head will be so low hes gonna fall over!!!

    • Carmelo Junior

      The Obama wants Huckabee to run and win the nomination, that’s all. Right Maurice Clemmons Dukkakis?

      • technopeasant

        I predicted that Huck would not run but I did leave the door open if either Romney or Palin did not run. I am still sticking to my original prediction: If Mitt and Sarah both run Huck won’t. With a lack of finances he would be a million to one shot of beating both of them in the same election cycle. I think Janet Huckabee knows that as well.

        • unseen1

          the first poll that comes out showing Huck running thrid or fouth and any thought of huck getting in goes away. the only reason Huck is still thinking about it is the drop in Palin’s support over the last several months. As he rpoll numbers dropped Huck’s interest increased. that is why I think Palin should not wait on Huck. By her getting in and showing strongly the threat of Huck goes away. With the Mitt self destruct over the last month or so and now with Trump’s fall. It looks like Gov Palin will be going up against Newt, Mitch and maybe TPaw. The thoought of a dark horde getting in at this stage is harder to see.

      • crunchingk

        huck is not going to win here we dont nominate felon relesers in ohio!unfortunatly our primary is very late but belive me ohio is palins easy!!!!

    • senator20526

      Thanking Obama for taking out Usama Bin Laden is like going into McDonalds and thanking Ronald for the fine burger..Thank the cook who cooked the burger…not the clown.

  • technopeasant

    One of the primary strategies of the anti-Palin contingent is to drain the swamp on Palin, to marginalize her so badly that she has few places of refuge or sanctuary or is prevented from accessing needed resources.

    Organize4Palin outflanks that strategy by establishing branches in every state that Palin can call upon at any time whether it be people or resources.

    Nobody will be ever able to permanently outflank Sarah Palin, nobody!

  • Guest

    It bewilders me how easily some conservatives are fooled by all these type of lefist tactics. Dopy citizens! Saul Alinsky’s book "Rules for Radicals" was properly dedicated to Lucifer, the prince of lies.

  • polarfan

    Sarah cannot be marginalized – will win the nomination in a landslide – will be the next president come 01/2013! Why is this so hard to understand??

    • technopeasant

      PF:

      Although I am an optimist I do not think it will be that easy as it was not as easy as Michael Scofield thought to break out of Fox River Prison in Prison Break.

      There are so many unknown variables and unexpected developments that could happen down the road that might have the ability to derail the Sarah Palin Express even though it aspires to attain speeds of a thousand miles an hour.

      And when you have a "six-headed monster" arrayed against you, Sarah Palin will be faced with a great opposition to her candidacy and her positions that she will have to display the dexterity to deal with all 6 simultaneously on a number of occasions.

      Fortunately Palin will have have an army of millions behind her job to make her job a litter easier. But not easy. It will never be easy. The ruing class has too much lose. They will not give up without fight. You can take that to the bank.

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