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What Does Governor Palin’s Lead Over Jeff Flake in a Hypothetical Arizona GOP Senate Primary Tell Us About 2012?/Open Thread





The most important thing it tells us is that the Daily Kos pollster is desperate for attention. Nevertheless, I did find its poll results for the Arizona 2012 GOP primary and the Arizona Senate GOP primary for Jon Kyl’s seat interesting. Here were the results:

Arizona Senate GOP primary:

Palin 35%
Flake 33%
Hayworth 11%

Flake 54%
Hayworth 27%

Arizona 2012 GOP primary:

Romney 24%
Palin 12%
Paul 12%
Huckabee 12%
Bachmann 10%
Trump 8%
Pawlenty 5%

The reason why I find these poll numbers interesting is not because I want the Governor to run for the Senate. I find these numbers interesting because this poll strongly suggests that she will benefit when candidates who are obviously not running, such as Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump, formally end their charades and admit they aren’t running. As the field thins and is finally free of credible "conservative" conmen like Huckabee and Trump, the better Palin does. I think it’s fair to infer that the Arizona Senate primary numbers would be what the Arizona GOP presidential numbers would look like once the field thins with Romney getting Flake’s numbers and Bachmann or someone like her getting Hayworth’s numbers. Keep in mind too that the Arizona Republican primary electorate is considered a below-average Republican electorate for the Governor. It’s good news that she could potentially win a Republican electorate that is not necessarily a great fit for her when the field gets smaller.

What else is going on today?



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