Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

Even the Daily Kos Pollster Concedes "There Could be an Immediate, Significant Improvement in [Palin's] Numbers" If She Announces She’s Running





I have to give some credit to the Daily Kos pollster for bringing up this point:

The most popular of the Republican candidates, as measured by favorability rating, is Palin at 62/27. The big question with her poor horse race performance is this- are people not supporting her because they don’t think she’s Presidential material, even if they personally like her? Or is her low support because people don’t think she’s running? If it’s the former her prospects aren’t very good but if it’s the latter and she does end up entering the race there could be an immediate, significant improvement in her numbers.

It’s clearly the latter. If Republicans didn’t believe Governor Palin was presidential material, she wouldn’t be leading the field in terms of net favorability among primary voters in pretty much every state even after the New Hampshire debate. Mitt "peacetime" Romney has seen his net favorability among primary voters decline during this period whereas Bachmann’s net favorable rating hasn’t matched Palin’s in any state post-debate among primary voters. The only plausible explanation (other than this possibility) is that nearly everyone has become convinced that she isn’t running.

Here are the following margins in terms of net favorability among primary voters in each state that the Daily Kos pollster has polled post-New Hampshire debate:

Florida: Palin +4 on Bachmann, Palin +14 on Romney
Oregon: Palin +6 on Bachmann, Palin +17 on Romney
Montana: Palin +26 on Bachmann, Palin +37 on Romney
New Mexico: Palin +9 on Bachmann, Palin +16 on Romney

So on average, Governor Palin’s net favorability among primary voters is around eleven and twenty-one points better than Republican Party hacks Bachmann and Romney, respectively.



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  • pgroup

    Well, I’m convinced. Guess which one I’m convinced about. :) 

  • theGOPalliance

    Forget the Japanese during WW2 – Sarah Palin is the real sleeping giant, and she’s about to take America by storm.

  • ccrwm

    Have you guys seen this? I think it’s a great idea…

    http://500daysofsarah.com/

    • spottedreptile

      Thank you so much for posting this link! The stories and the photos are magnificent. What a great idea from O4P California.

    • Guest

      Thanks, love it!

    • $10089747

      Love this.

  • JLAdevelop

    Good point but the article appears in a poll that shows Bachman for the first time leading a state with Sarah in the poll. It appears she has caught fire for now.

    New Mexico Republicans for President:

    Bachman: 21%
    Romney: 18%
    Gary Johnson (former NM Governor): 13%
    Sarah: 11%
    Cain: 10%
    Pawlenty: 7%
    Newt: 65

    Without Johnson the race is:

    Romney: 22%
    Bachman: 22%
    Palin: 14%
    Cain: 10%

    • Ianlazaran

      JLA,

      The point of this post and the argument advanced by PPP is to provide an explanation for those numbers in light of their favorable ratings.

      If you just showed their net favorable ratings to someone, you would think that Palin is running away with it.

    • Steven

      Bachmann is not going anywhere. The salient aspect of McCotter’s candidacy is that we can clearly see why Bachmann is even a contender at all. Its all due to the concerted effort of the media and the GOP Establishment to prop her candidacy up. McCotter on the other hand won’t have a prayer of getting more than 2% of the vote and yet he is in many ways more similiar to Bachmann than Bachmann is to Palin. So these polls are push polls and they are meant to drive Bachmann into the top tier to divide the conservative base.

      The only question is whether Palin enters the fray sooner to sap Bachmann’s support or later, after Bachmann inevitably implodes or even better the media and the Establishment turn on Bachmann, thinking it is safe to do so, because they are convinced Palin will not run. I am hoping for the former, because I can’t stand to wait anymore! If Palin holds on long enough to really convince everyone who hates her she’s not running then you are looking at late September, early October for an announcement. If on the otherhand she chooses to sap Bachmann’s support now, then a late July, early August entry is what I expect.

      But keep them guessing Sarah! They can only carry on this charade for so long. What will be most interesting is finding out how much these candidates have raised so far. I will be especially interested in Bachmann’s and Pawlenty’s numbers and I am sure Palin will be too. Stay tuned…

      • blerch

        I think your premise then calls for an earlier rather than later entry, as Bachmann being trashed by the establishment would endear her more with the grassroots and enable her to gather even more momentum.  In my opinion, the best avenue to take is to squash her.

    • http://www.solitudebooks.com/ Dan C

      That fact of no accomplishments will eventually be known by everyone.

    • aafan

      These are huge difference. May be there is messaging problem in NM. Even Florida unfavorable for Gov seems some problem. Specific areas will have to be addressed. It is not going to be smooth sailing everywhere. Some things will be addressed during campaign. Patience is required.

      • lanahi

         In Florida, I think it’s because she isn’t getting the senior vote.  That age group is Sarah’s weakest showing.  I’m sure she can correct that with campaigning.

  • ellebb

    Can anyone shed some light onthat tweet about SEIU stolen money?  I’m not getting it.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Pete-Petretich/100002088167892 Pete Petretich

      I think they paid for the bogus PPP poll, in other words, they wasted their union money and not for the first time.

  • http://profiles.google.com/wisetrog wisetrog wt

    Finally. We have to drill this narrative everywhere. Thanks Ian.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_FTGJNWTIRG3KR3HENP4SKCLPEY Jules

    PPP just switched Palin and Bachmann numbers…. I actually rather see them take Sarah out of their polling like Rasmussen did since they always cook her number down anyway.
     
    Reading polls is quite simple. The candidate with the highest favorable rating among a party affiliation group almost always gets the most votes. Among republicans, Sarah has the most favorable rating and is LEADING THE PRIMARIES… Most of these polls include conservatives, moderate and independent leaning republicans (who are as liberal as they get and WILL NOT VOTE during the primaries).  Primary voters (outside NH) are mostly very conservative and Sarah will run away with it.
    The only polls that make sense (so far) are Gallup and Reuters. Gallup does national polling with a lot of liberal republicans so Palin is still under-polled with the primary voters.
    Favorability numbers among conservative voters is the only poll that will matter during the primaries…As long as Sarah is seen as the real conservative champion; she will easily sweep the primaries. At this time in 2007, Hillary had lower favorability numbers among liberal activist democrats than Obama but was leading in polls…When the votes came in; Obama came ahead because of his higher favorability numbers… Primaries are most often about favorability intensity.

  • unseen1

    good info.   I think  Palin still  has to make the sale.  Many will buy  with her  getting in the race but the way  she debates,  runs her campaign etc  will   get many  more on board.

  • gahanson

    OU’RE INVITED TO A FREE, EXCLUSIVE, ADVANCE
    LEADER SCREENING ON JUNE 30th AT 7 PM
    OF THE ACCLAIMED MOVIE:

    “THE UNDEFEATED”

    THE NEW FEATURE FILM ON

    SARAH PALIN
    http://events.motivemovies.com/theundefeatedmovie/leaders

  • bradkarr

    The Woman ( Sarah Palin ) is making me nervous, however my previous comments still stand.
    Sarah Louise Heath Palin knows exactly what she is doing even if some of us don’t know the plan.
    She is a Rogue afterall, lol.

    • Laddie_Blah_Blah

      Brad, maybe you could calm down if you realize that Sarah has only spent one day in Iowa,  during which she easily outdrew MB the day after MB made her big announcement in Waterloo. Then think back to her NH clambake the day of Mitt’s announcement, and how she overshadowed him there. 

      The game will change once she puts her gloves on and starts fighting for real.

  • gahanson

    I wouldn’t worry about Bachmann’s numbers, remember Trump was running away with the nomination just a matter of weeks ago.  Same with with Bachmann, they’re cooking the numbers to give her some hype.  Once Palin announces, everyone’s numbers will fall, and Palin’s will dramatically increase.

    • unseen1

      no they won’t  because they will cook  those numbers too.  never for a minute think the pollseters   will report a fair  poll.   Palin will be running 20pts behind in the polls until election day. 

      • exodus2011

        yup, most likely that will be the case until the last week

        and then they’ll need to drag them into line or else lose credibility

        Gov Palin is likely to employ her own private Pollster I suppose, and will just carry on campaigning serenely, while responding to the Media’s Qs about her poor numbers with …

        "oh, is that so? ……. funny how our numbers tell a different story isn’t it …. but regardless – it’s a good time to up our delivery of the common-sense Conservative message to The American People …..! 

        PS – tell your candidate The Prezzident, ….. oh … you mean he *isn’t* *your* candidate? …. oh my mistake …( big smile) …. anyway, tell Mr President from me, GAME ON!"

        *__*

    • excopconservative

      If you remember back to when Bachmann was first being discussed as a possible candidate, some here thought that she would be allied with Palin and would be a place holder until Palin decided to get in the race.  We know that isn’t correct now.  The alliance is with Romney, but she is still functioning like a place holder for Gov. Palin. 

      Romney may have thought that if Bachmann could get 8 or 10%, that it would be enough to split the conservative vote and allow him to win.  He may have been surprised that so many available conservative voters went to Bachmann over him.  We won’t know until Gov. Palin becomes a candidate, but with Palin in the race, many of those now supporting Bachmann will bail.  Bachmann is simply someone with whom they basically agree on most issues and a candidate that they can be with until a real leader comes along. 

      Bachmann is serving the same purpose working with Romney that she would have served if she were a Palin associate, a placeholder, a tester of issues, a media deflector, and a force pushing Romney to the left to develop his niche. Methinks Romney’s plan is backfiring.

  • Pamela Rich Lineberry

    Just had a Palin for President Party for  several friends.  Everyone was shocked when I told them she will be our next President!  Everyone left and agreed if she ran they would support her,  All she need to do is give us the word.

    • Sapwolf

      Right on!

    • exodus2011

      ALRIGHT Pamela!

      *__*

      which State are you in?

    • barracuda43

      I have a couple who live next door to us in Texas who never vote.Have convinced them to go to the polls and vote for Sarah in 2012.If we all just work together we will have a army that cannot be stopped by November 2012.Cuda 2012.Nothing Less!

      • Susan Leach

        My husband, who has never voted in his life, told me that he wants to register so that he can vote for her if she runs.  SP Alaska sold him on her. 

        • exodus2011

          ALRIGHT Susan!

          *__*

      • exodus2011

        ALRIGHT baracuda43!

        *__*

    • aafan

      Not a bad idea. Just tell she is the next President. It is better they know something real about her, watch the movie and not get left behind. 

  • http://www.wordbroadcast.org Doc Yeager

    It is the YEAR 2060
    Most significant, recognized and importing  women of history!

    Joan of Arc
    Harriet Beecher Stowe 
    Florence Nightingale
    Mother Teresa 
    Margaret Thatcher
    Sarah Palin

    • xthred

      And, President Piper Palin 2041-2049

  • jerseyflash

    I smell 2012 and 2016 LANDSLIDE "PALIN/WEST 2012 & 2016″ (Take it to the BANK) !!!

  • munchausen

    HOLD FAST Palinistas, a slow train is coming… prepare to get on board. COURAGE will be required.

    • Italia1984

      Preach it! Patience, patience, patience! 

      She is so much better at this game of political 
      "one up-man ship" than we are. She’s the 
      "cat" toying with the "mouse".

      I am loving the way she’s playing it. And I’m wiling to keep
      quiet while she does it.

      The evil side of me can’t wait to say "I told you she was running".

      The good side of me will be rejoicing and high fiving my fellow
      Palinistas as we continue to work on strategy. 

      Please run, Sarah. Our country needs you.

      • exodus2011

        (I am running Italia … I am,  …. you *know* I am  ….. -Big Mama Grizzly)

    • FredHeadBill
      • OldGuyAZ

        Thanks FHB.  I forgot how great BD is. Now, I have go through my storage stuff and try to find some of my old BD. 

        He is right you know in his song, :"You Got to Serve Somebody."   "Either the devil or the Lord."

  • jhva99

    I would give the Daily Kos nothing but the back of my hand!

    I am reading "Bring Her Down" by Gina Dalfonzo.  Now I wasn’t in the blogosphere until 2010 so I didn’t know what the Daily Kos had done or what the Journolist was.

    It just makes my blood boil how they have lied willfully from the very beginning, and continue to this day.

  • independents4palin

    The polls have been fixed for awhile even on FOX. I don’t trust the polls all that much. Bachmann always repeats the samething over and over "Obama will be a One, Term, President" Yeah we get it, like we didn’t know that. She is like a frinkin recorder, she repeats that same stupid line over and over. Sorry I honestly can’t believe she would be ahead in any poll. The media wants us to believe that.

  • benbob3100

    i liken it to the part in the movie "the Gladiator" where the Roman general (star of the film…forget his name, sorry), after the decision has been made to attack the opponent army,  says "let all hell break lose".  kinda like what is going to happen when Palin announces.    

    • barracuda43

      Maximus!

  • RedDaveR

    One thing that will happen when she announces is that all these pundits who have told us over and over that "She’s not running" will look like complete fools.  People will trust the media even less, and that alone should give her a bounce in the polls.

    • conservativemama

      I agree.  I’ve watched these pundits and wondered, are they dense and don’t see that she’s running or do they just hope to scare her out of the race?  Dumb or devious?  And when she does announce, what will they say to save face?  I didn’t see it coming (then why should we ever listen to you), or I don’t support her (then how can you call yourself a conservative).

    • OLDIRON

      As I see it [ and , after all, I could be wrong, but it would be the first time ] EVERYONE @ Fox has been coached to say [ with conviction ] Oh No ! —- Sarah’s not running ! —– Fox & Sarah are treading a fine line. [ a REALLY FINE line ] —– I remember how it was before Fox came along — and God Bless ‘Em —- I really don’t want to go back to that situation of having to get my news from the lamestream media.—— Palin/Rubio 2012

  • heypiasano

    When it comes to numbers anyone can make whatever outcome is desired. However, numbers also are very telling. If Sarah is as damaged as the left and the elites say she is, then

    1.) Why does she always draw the largest crowds by just appearing at any event?

    2.) Since the night of 2008 GOP Convention why has Sarah never been dethroned as the true conservative of all the contenders?

    3.) Let’s look at Rush Limbaugh’s actions and innuedos, has Rush ever mentioned or used any other possible cannidate as many times or in as many posters to exemplify " The Sum of all Fears" as he has with Sarah Palin.

    4.) When it comes to ratings on any network, whether, Fox, and Prior Fox Contract- NBC, ABC and even CNN, if Sarah appears ratings increase significantly.

    5.) Why has sold more books as a first time author than any other candidate?

    6.) Why has Barbara Walters made her the only three peet "Woman of interest " the past three years?

    I can go on and on but when the above are placed into the numbers category Sarah Palin is the only one that has " It ". 

    That "it Factor" is what no one is able to take away from her and is what will make her POTUS – 2013!

    • heypiasano

      The most telling of all.

       Why is Sarah’s picture or name put in the beginning of any article  or headline from both the left and the right  in order to garner hits?

      • OLDIRON

        Absolutely Right ! —– Even Polutico gets BIG hits with ANY story about Sarah ! —- Ahahahahaha —– it’s got to just drive them CRAZY !! —– Life is Good !

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IDAKYMXLZIRLMLGEZJXV3AOO7E Vorlath

      It’s like I always say: I’ll dismiss Sarah Palin when the media does.

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