What would we do without Hot Air? Seriously…
This week they really lived up to their domain name over there.
For like the bazillionth straight month Sarah Palin came out on top of their 2012 Presidential poll, garnering nearly 37% of the 6,000 votes cast, her highest vote total ever, and nearly twice as much as her nearest competitor, Michele Bachmann, who incidentally, has actually declared her candidacy.
And yet this wasn’t the result desired, so the brilliant Hot Air poll analyst Patrick Ishmael took occasion to offer what he calls "hard realities" for "Hot Air’s front runner" and to warn Palinistas that the overwhelming Palin victory actually bodes ill for the Governor. VERY VERY ILL.
Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.
I know I’m feeling very very uneasy already … how about you all? But let’s look at the pie chart anyhow, shall we?
So, Palin beats Bachmann nearly two-to-one with 13 candidates in the race, and still beats Bachmann in a head-to-head, but by a predictably smaller margin, four points. (She beats Perry head-to-head by 10 points). Oh, and Sarah Palin has not even announced yet, and is widely believed to not be running. And I’m supposed to be very very uneasy about this?
What seems obvious is that all the ABP voters combined still can’t overcome Palin’s advantage at Hot Air.
Mr. Ishmael then attempts to explain this away, strangely undermining his own readers’ intelligence and representation.
Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway.
Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.
So, basically, Palin wins the Hot Air poll by a nearly two-to-one margin … and still beats out her closest competitors, albeit more narrowly, in head-to-head match-ups (head-to-head match-ups that would never occur in real life, incidentally), but she would be better off as a "coronator" for one of these other candidates who can’t even win a poll of online grassroots activists? Um … okay.
But I’m a little confused at what Mr. Ishmael is really implying … Is he suggesting that Bachmann is the one for Palinistas to fear even though she can’t seem to beat Palin head-to-head among a grassroots-heavy online audience, and she has only had one month of double-digit support compared to Palin’s consistent domination? Same goes for Perry. I’m not sure what Ishmael is implying. If we were just going to go on pure speculation, wouldn’t it be just as easy to speculate that Bachmann and Perry are flashes in the pan … same as Christie, Trump and Cain before them? Shouldn’t we wait until they have spent seven months at the top of the Hot Air poll before we declare them a "threat" to Palin?
Or is Mr. Ishmael really just implying based on zero evidence that there is a groundswell of support for some other candidate out there that is not being reflected in Hot Air’s poll? Maybe he’s just predicting that Romney will be the nominee. Just because. Maybe a little birdy told him so.
Ishmael should just go ahead and predict that based on the results of this Hot Air poll, Romney will be the nominee. Afterall, Romney received 6.3% of the vote compared to 36.94% of the vote for Palin. Moreover, Romney’s weakness is the lack of excitement of his supporters, and the low commitment of those supporters to him. His strength, is simply, that there are so many of them not voting on Hot Air, which will obviously carry him through the current field of primary candidates.
Yeah, that makes sense……..
Because most candidates who win elections have oodles of weakly committed supporters. In fact, the more weakly committed, the better, according to Mr. Ishmael.
Or maybe … this "Palin supporters should be panicking" is all in Mr. Ishmael’s wishful thinking head.
Seriously why do they even have polls over at Hot Air? It’s obvious that they don’t want Sarah Palin to come out on top, which she does nearly every time (The Chris Christie vote in November being the lone exception). Moreover, what Mr. Ishmael is essentially saying is that Hot Air readers are in no way representative of the Republican primary electorate overall.
So why not just hang it up?
If you’re going to discount your own poll results, and essentially describe the results as the unhinged actions of a small fringe group of Palin loyalists that won’t in any way reflect the Primary election … um, why not stop posting polls?
Then maybe you wouldn’t be so embarrassed month after month.