Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

Hot Air’s Hot Air





What would we do without Hot Air? Seriously…

This week they really lived up to their domain name over there.

For like the bazillionth straight month Sarah Palin came out on top of their 2012 Presidential poll, garnering nearly 37% of the 6,000 votes cast, her highest vote total ever, and nearly twice as much as her nearest competitor, Michele Bachmann, who incidentally, has actually declared her candidacy.

And yet this wasn’t the result desired, so the brilliant Hot Air poll analyst Patrick Ishmael took occasion to offer what he calls "hard realities" for "Hot Air’s front runner" and to warn Palinistas that the overwhelming Palin victory actually bodes ill for the Governor. VERY VERY ILL.

Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.

I know I’m feeling very very uneasy already … how about you all? But let’s look at the pie chart anyhow, shall we?

So, Palin beats Bachmann nearly two-to-one with 13 candidates in the race, and still beats Bachmann in a head-to-head, but by a predictably smaller margin, four points. (She beats Perry head-to-head by 10 points). Oh, and Sarah Palin has not even announced yet, and is widely believed to not be running. And I’m supposed to be very very uneasy about this?

What seems obvious is that all the ABP voters combined still can’t overcome Palin’s advantage at Hot Air.

Mr. Ishmael then attempts to explain this away, strangely undermining his own readers’ intelligence and representation.

Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway.

[...]

Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.

So, basically, Palin wins the Hot Air poll by a nearly two-to-one margin … and still beats out her closest competitors, albeit more narrowly, in head-to-head match-ups (head-to-head match-ups that would never occur in real life, incidentally), but she would be better off as a "coronator" for one of these other candidates who can’t even win a poll of online grassroots activists? Um … okay.

But I’m a little confused at what Mr. Ishmael is really implying … Is he suggesting that Bachmann is the one for Palinistas to fear even though she can’t seem to beat Palin head-to-head among a grassroots-heavy online audience, and she has only had one month of double-digit support compared to Palin’s consistent domination? Same goes for Perry. I’m not sure what Ishmael is implying. If we were just going to go on pure speculation, wouldn’t it be just as easy to speculate that Bachmann and Perry are flashes in the pan … same as Christie, Trump and Cain before them? Shouldn’t we wait until they have spent seven months at the top of the Hot Air poll before we declare them a "threat" to Palin?

Or is Mr. Ishmael really just implying based on zero evidence that there is a groundswell of support for some other candidate out there that is not being reflected in Hot Air’s poll? Maybe he’s just predicting that Romney will be the nominee. Just because. Maybe a little birdy told him so.

Ishmael should just go ahead and predict that based on the results of this Hot Air poll, Romney will be the nominee. Afterall, Romney received 6.3% of the vote compared to 36.94% of the vote for Palin. Moreover, Romney’s weakness is the lack of excitement of his supporters, and the low commitment of those supporters to him. His strength, is simply, that there are so many of them not voting on Hot Air, which will obviously carry him through the current field of primary candidates.

Yeah, that makes sense……..

Because most candidates who win elections have oodles of weakly committed supporters. In fact, the more weakly committed, the better, according to Mr. Ishmael.

Or maybe … this "Palin supporters should be panicking" is all in Mr. Ishmael’s wishful thinking head.

Seriously why do they even have polls over at Hot Air? It’s obvious that they don’t want Sarah Palin to come out on top, which she does nearly every time (The Chris Christie vote in November being the lone exception). Moreover, what Mr. Ishmael is essentially saying is that Hot Air readers are in no way representative of the Republican primary electorate overall.

So why not just hang it up?

If you’re going to discount your own poll results, and essentially describe the results as the unhinged actions of a small fringe group of Palin loyalists that won’t in any way reflect the Primary election … um, why not stop posting polls?

Then maybe you wouldn’t be so embarrassed month after month.



Tags: , , ,

Comment Policy: The Editors reserve the right to delete any comments which in their sole discretion are deemed false or misleading, profane, pornographic, defamatory, harassment, name calling, libelous, threatening, or otherwise inappropriate. Additionally, the Editors reserve the right to ban any registered poster who, in their sole discretion, violates the terms of use. Do not post any information about yourself reasonably construed as private or confidential. Conservatives4Palin and its contributors are not liable if users allow others to contact them offsite.

  • Jean_A

    Hotair knows MB is full of hotair.

    • Joneshuynh

      Without Michelle Malkin, just like you said it best, HotAir is "full of hotair".

  • Guest

    The HotAir analysis is bogus and full of wishin’. Unhappily for them, wishin’ don’t make it so.

    • PhillyCon

      But, I’m sure there is a unicorn out there to save the ABP folks from their misery …. :)

      • Guest

        LOL!!!

    • goldenprez

      apodaca … Allow me to use your "friendly fire" once again.

      Yeah, yeah, yeah … Michele Bachmann, Michele Bachmann, Michele Bachmann …

      Michele Bachmann is not going to make even a small dent in Mrs. Palin’s TEA Party and grassroots support. I don’t care what Hot Air’s "poll" says now. Now is not anywhere near a single primary. Still 8 months to go before the first primaries. And as Mr. Kelly’s article, and danielvito’s reiteration, point out, they are the least important of all.

      This really gets tiresome. These "polls" are totally meaningless at this time. Mrs. Bachmann has been getting face time throughout the Ministry of Propaganda. So what? As Ms. Coulter points out above, when Donald Trump was getting the same amount of face time he was leading the "polls."

      Ms. Coulter said it best, Hot Air is aptly named. Their "political analysis" is sublime. To say that they don’t know their political ass from a hole-in-the-wall is giving them the best of it. There are innumerable factors that go into a campaign, absolutely none of which are touched on by the Hot Air "analysis." Just completely stupid statements like "… she could …," "… he might …," and " … if …"

      If this is "political analysis," I’ll take chocolate.

      There is absolutely no evidence that Mrs. Bachmann is a "TEA Party favorite," other than statements in the Ministry of Propaganda. There is not one single local TEA Party that has endorsed Mrs. Bachmann. In fact, as I keep pointing out, she was not even endorsed in 2010 by her local TEA Party. They endorsed someone else.

      Mrs. Bachmann’s TEA Party caucus in the House has not been endorsed by one single TEA Party organization. Because Mrs. Bachmann has glommed the TEA Party, and pasted it to her own head, is not indicative of anything, other than the fact that she is an opportunist and a fraud.

      The grassroots conservatives have given, and are giving, every indication, and rightly so, that they view Mrs. Bachmann as a stalking horse for Mr. Romney, trying to siphon potential votes from Mrs. Palin. The Ministry of Propaganda meme is to keep pushing her to the gullible as some sort of "alternative" to Mrs. Palin.

      Hot Air is trying the same folderol. They are obviously trying, along with the Ministry of Propaganda, and the "establishment" GOP, to dissuade Mrs. Palin from running. As Mrs. Palin is already running, and has been for over 2 years, this is a pipe-dream at best, delusional at worst.

      But unequivocally transparent. These self-evaluated "brilliant" people aren’t one-quarter as smart as they think they are.

      Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see.

      Illegitimi non carborundum.

      Barracudas Maximus.

      • Guest

        Dead on, girl, dead on!

  • unseen1

    this is why Palin  gets  36%  and will conitnue to  increase her support.

    http://texansforsarahpalin.blogspot.com/2011/07/rewind-sarah-palin-in-tyler-texas-june.html

    • socon

      Keep fighting the good fight on HA, unseen!  These polls must give Allah fits!!  Love it.

      • xthred

        unseen is great!

        • socon

          I agree!

          • Joneshuynh

            Unseen is the best Sarah’s defender on HotAir!!!!

            • Reckoner_3

              He gets flak for it by some of the posters on Hotair, sometimes I noticed.

              I’m like "losers" but there are some other palinistas who knock sense into the other knuckleheads.

              WHat i don’t like are the non-committal people who like Palin but think they’re being fair, by fancying stupid talking points against her.

    • sarahhasmyvote

      Thanks for this post. I love seeing Sarah in action!

    • http://twitter.com/greeneyedconsrv Gr-Eyed Conservative

      You’re awesome, unseen1. I read your comments daily over at HA. You freakin’ rock the house over there standing up for Sarah. Thank you! 

      • Guest

        Welcome Green-Eyed Conservative :)

  • http://www.motivationtruth.com Adrienne Ross

    Good post, Nicole.

  • carolhaka

    The poll is ridiculous.  I voted twice.

    Enuff said…….

    • dontufts

      Hi carol nice to see a fellow puma over here.isnt it funny how the hate against sarah is simular to what we endured in 2008 primary against the forces of the one.
      Pumas live on were just palinistas now!
      Sarah 2012 accept no substitutes.

      • puma_for_life

        Also there is me and Susiepuma who post here regularly and I think several more.  Good to meet you.

        • dontufts

          carol and i both did battle at no quarter as i beleive you and susie did also.

          • puma_for_life

            I still visit No Quarter occasionally; post once in a while.  Some good people there and many are Sarah Palin supporters or defenders.

            • 1momofsoldier1

              Another puma and No Quarter here. And yes, Palin appeals to independents and moderate democrats, if there is actually such a thing as a "moderate democrate" anymore. Although since my son enlisted a few years back, I’ve become much more conservative and even more so since the "uglies" have taken over the Democratic and evidently the Republican party. And yes, HA is a crazy place and not sure if I would say that’s a good thing. But unseen, way to go and stand your ground. You’d have many more over there if some of us were able to register.

              • carolhaka

                Is that you Katmoon or armymom?

                • 1momofsoldier1

                  Armymom, unfortunately with the disque situation, I lost my name…….boo hoo hoooooo lol

              • http://twitter.com/greeneyedconsrv Gr-Eyed Conservative

                IF more of us could register, 1momofsoldier1, which is exactly why I think they’ve NOT had an open registration for a long, long time. In my opinion, I think they feel they have waaaaay too many Palinistas already and it creeps them out. Poor things. ;~)

                • http://twitter.com/greeneyedconsrv Gr-Eyed Conservative

                  Okay… I kid. But sometimes I do wonder… ;~)

            • http://twitter.com/greeneyedconsrv Gr-Eyed Conservative

              Same here. No Quarter still posts some good articles and yes, many Palin supporters. I was a strong Hillary supporter when I first started reading NQ. Left the Dems for good on 5/31/08. Been an unwavering, strong, vigilant supporter of Sarah Palin since the night before she was picked. My heart was broken when the nomination was stolen from Hillary, but y’know what? Everything happens for a reason, and that reason brought me to Palin and more important, to my senses. 

        • carolhaka

          Hi everyone!  Sarah was a keeper from day one!

          Sorry Hillary tainted herself with Obama.  I know in my heart she has done the very best anyone could given the circumstances.  I still love her for her love of country, but she will need to write a truthful episode of the facts regarding the election and behind the scenes with the idiot in the WH.

    • rightConcept

      Great job. How many others voted twice for Palin? Maybe she didn’t do as well as we want to believe if people are Ron Pauling that poll for Palin.

      • carolhaka

        I didn’t say who I voted for.

        Also, for sure people like you showed up to try and skew the numbers.

        These polls are just for hits on the site – nothing more.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Lee-Cole/1170116442 Lee Cole

        From the poll thread at HA(http://hotair.com/archives/2011/07/01/hot-air-candidate-survey-independence-day-weekend-edition/)

        "Please vote only once. Your ballot should take less than a minute to
        complete. We’ll announce the results after voting has concluded. As
        always, double voters will be removed from the final tally, so no
        cheating"

      • chamomiletea

        From what I understand, Ishmael has it set up so that you cannot vote twice. If you do it will only count once. Some kind of state, zip code, area code, and domain name algorithm…

    • http://twitter.com/curth1 curth

       You may have filled out the forms twice but it’s a pretty sure thing the second one wasn’t counted. If more than one vote per person was being counted then Ron Paul would be winning every month because his minions game , and ruin , every internet poll out there. That’s why the HotAir poll is more credible than just about every other internet poll.

    • Guest

      I am soo happy for all the PUMAs that are here for Sarah!

      It shows that she reaches many people, both social- and not social-cons and moderates alike.

      If you watch the film "Media Malpractice" you will see that Sarah is asked if she would have been treated differently if having been picked as VP for the democrats?
      In her reply she mentions that it seems like some radicals or progressives have created a bad environment inside the Democratic party, that she liked to work with them whenever policies were of a bipartisan nature and that she has a lot of respect for the majority good and decent democrats.

      When the history of Palin is written, a bigger impact than on the Republican brand, could be how she by her policies- moral- and openness- platform indirectly creates a path for the Democratic Party in its own much needed reform?

      For me, I am proud to stand with Palin however her story goes, to the top or not, because I love America as I love my own small country and in Palin I find the evidence of why America is named an exeptional country. :)

      NorCon

  • palin45potus

    I sure do miss Michelle Malkin’s "Vent" skits!  That was a must-see for me.  

    Yeah, it’s pretty much a place for Allahpundit to stir up trouble and watch the hits pile up.  I rarely even go there anymore.  They are about as useful as Fox News to me.

  • unseen1

    As long  as the ABP  conservative vote and the ABP moderate vote is split.  Palin walks to the win.  the only  time Palin will have a race on her hands is  if  the ABP  vote  forms behind  one candidate  be it Mitt or Perry.   but  since Mitt and Perry are so  different  i  don’t  think  the ABP  will form  behind  one candidate.   Hate is not  enough  to win an  election on  and the hard core Palinhaters   have nothing to offer  except  their candidate of  choice is not Palin.

    • Kataklysmic

      Hey buddy, missed you at HA today.

      • IsraeliCojones

        Kataklysmic, of HA fame? Love your posts there!

        Visit more often! :)

        • Kataklysmic

          Thanks, friend.

          • IsraeliCojones

            I find the Palinistas very courageous there. With all the nutz roaming free: Meredith, Petunia, Lourdes, or the "Abdicate!!!" guy, whatever his name is, I don’t know how you’ve got the patience of even debating such talking points robots.

            Keep up the great work there!

            • socon

              Courageous, clever and hilarious, too!  The pro-Palin posters on HA make me laugh.

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_Q5RS3K7SGR2HI3SGHPFMFUQBLQ Geochelone

          Yo Kataklysmic,

          Our forces are gathering. The tension mounts. Keep your powder dry. 

          For when the time comes Hell fire shall rain down upon the unwitting sheeple that stand in our way.  

      • unseen1

        well  been in and out  today  spending time with family  didn’t feel  like  getting involved in running threads   today so  avoided  hotair for the most part.   Read a couple articles  here and on free republic  but  mostly took the day to be with family.  not sure if i’m  going for fireworks  or not  tonight.   if not  most likely  will visit hotair   later tonight. 

           

    • xthred

      You do great work, unseen. I only go to HA to read your comments.

      • unseen1

        :)   thanks.   and thanks for all the kind  comments from all the posters  tonight.  

  • stevethird

    Us Palinistas ruined his  4th of July. Good. If she’s not on the ballot next month there won’t be any reason to give ‘em the hits. Great! No Fox…no HA. I feel better already!

  • gilamonster8

    Hotair poll analyst = donkychit

  • TedTorgerson

    "I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right."

    A Coronator is a species of mosquito. I think he means "kingmaker." But hey I think we should start calling her "the Coronator" because she is going to be stinging a lot of RINOs in the fanny.

  • http://www.facebook.com/PalinRepublican Carol Carr

    Smack!! LOL! Love it,,,great job Nicole!

    And for the ABP crowd at HA,,,, we aren’t as ignorant as you want us to be. Who’s the fool? How could you possibly defend a Presidential run by a current congress person with a law degree, just like the One..?
    Someone needs to dig up their posts of them slamming Palin for her LACK of executive experience that is totally blown out of the water with the documentary about how she is even more qualified than all the candidates on both tickets in 2008! 
    Hey ABP HA posters,,, you are fricken hypocrits!! 

    Palin 2012!! We’re going down fighting!!
     

  • MarkRNY

    "I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right."

    The brilliant numbers cruncher guy’s correct. She’ll coronate herself–

    Sarah–"Geez, the rest of these peeps are truly pathetic and I can kick any of their butts standing on my head. I think I’ll support…uh…me".

    BINGO! Case Closed. Simple solution for a real gordian knot type Beltway/Pundit/Polster dillema. You’ve gotta hand it to that Cuda!

    Why do I get the feeling that most "Loyalists" were numbers crunchers in 76?? Washington, Adams and Jefferson just kind of…did stuff…hmm…

    Nicole, you’re C4P’s best numbers analyst! You don’t come to site polls, you come to BURY them! (Mark Antony to Roman mob).

    Thank you.

    • DanO

      heh heh heh…yer right of course.  I wonder how well "rebellion against His Majesty’s Army, Navy, and Empire" polled among colonists in the 1770′s.  Fortunately a few visionaries forced us to choose between tyranny and liberty.  I keep thinking that history cannot repeat itself so precisely, but then I pass my neighbor’s homes where I see those modified Betsy Ross Flags – with the Roman Numeral ll – flapping in the breeze…

      • MarkRNY

        HIS MAJESTY’S LORD RASMUSSEN POLL from THE DAILY TORY–November 20th, 1776–

        "Will the Rebels be able to stop His Majesty’s Army Before it Captures and Sacks Philadelphia?"

        Yes–3%
        No-78%
        Don’t Know-19%

        Poll of 200 likely Subjects".

        Then came Trenton.

        • goldenprez

          MarkRNY … Just an historical note about "polls."

          In fact, at the time of the Revolutionary War, it has been documented by many historians, approximately 1/3 of the people were for the war, 1/3 of the people were against the war, and 1/3 of the people did not care one way or the other.

          It has also been historically documented that, at the start of WW I approximately 1/3 of the people were for getting into the War, 1/3 of the people were against getting into the War, and 1/3 of the people did not care one way or the other.

          It has also been historically documented that, concerning WW II approximately 1/3 of the people were for getting into the War, 1/3 of the people were against getting into the War, and 1/3 of the people did not care one way or the other.

          Do we see an historical pattern here?

          History teaches us that it is the 1/3 who are activists for something who are the ones who actually make things happen. We can always depend on 2/3 of the people to be on the wrong side of history. However, they are not activists. Their negativity, or passivity, accomplishes nothing.

          Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see.

          Illegitimi non carborundum.

          Barracudas Maximus.

          • MarkRNY

            I was aware of the 1/3 "rule", just from life experience. Didn’t know it was this well documented though.

            The 1/3 who are in the "don’t know" category through being apathetic, ill informed or just afraid to take a stand are the "Moderates" who the GOP and Punditry insists all messages have to be tailored to, i.e. "Don’t scare them!" or "Talk down to them", etc. They’re wrong. These people will swing over to any rising tide. Makes them feel safe and can even shake some out of their torpor (see Reagan). Sarah and her message will be a Rip Tide when the campaign starts!

            Polls, especially early polls no matter who the polster, are insidious. They freeze time, space and action and make them conform to a snapshot (usually a skewed snapshot). They can paralyze even some of our 1/3, and they’re meant to. They’re a weapon and absolutely meaningless until the campaign starts. Even then, there are only 2 or 3 that have any distant relationship to the truth. The "best" of them are always at least 5 points off. 5 points is a fairly decisive margin! 

            I also think that watching numbers can be an excuse for doing nothing (can you tell I don’t like polls?). They’re the Beltway’s/Ruling Classes best buds.

            Another Latin speaker! That makes 3 here now by my count.

            Great comment GP.   

            • goldenprez

              MarkRNY … Thank you for the "thumbs up." I appreciate it.

              Yes, it is historically well documented. Of course, the Ministry of Propaganda, and the "establishment" mouthpieces, are wrong. They may tailor as much as they like, the hard truth is that these apathetic people will not "swing" to anyone. They do not bother to vote. That is why less than half of the populace eligible to vote casts a ballot.

              I have quoted Tommy Lasorda previously, ‘"There are 3 types of people in this world: Those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who say, ‘What happened?""

              The apathetic group fall into the third category. Any and all attempts to reach these people is totally futile.

              The Ministry of Propaganda, and the "pundits" therein, fall into the second category. They watch things happen, but they take no "active" part in what happens. Consequently, the information upon which they base their "punditry" has no basis in reality. None of it is a priori knowledge.

              Polls, are not "news." Polls are intended to influence people, pure and simple. In that regard, they are skewed to get the result desired. And when they cannot be skewed, they are created out of whole cloth.

              It is the  "moderates," as you define them above, that these "polls" are attempting to influence. As 2010 proved, this group is not as large as the "establishment" believes. The professional campaign managers, and other ruling class fringe players, have learned nothing from 2010. They are locked into their "conventional thinking" box. They actually believe that the TEA Parties are going to go away.

              The "establishment," on both sides, still believes in the Lyndon Johnson adage: You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time … and that’s good enough for me!

              These ruling class people wake up every morning thinking, "How can I fool them today?"

              Fortunately, the people are not as easy to fool anymore.

              Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see.

              Illegitimi non carborundum.

              Barracudas Maximus.

  • grizzlyrising

    Great Nicole!  Talk about the twilight zone with their strange and consistent denial of truths and facts.  You are now entering….The Palin Zone….doo dee doo doo ….doo de doo doo….etc.

  • aaron66krohn

    Screw all polls……….save one!!

    Sarah and her family!!

    Right now, I’d say it’s 6 votes FOR……

    with 1 sorta undecided…..or something like that……maybe!!!

  • http://profiles.google.com/wisetrog wisetrog wt

    When they say Sarah Palin shouldn’t run but be a coronator, they happily dream about her coronating their own candidate. One would think they know that dreaming aloud is the surest sign of madness but apparently not.

  • http://twitter.com/Super_Sachiko Jasmine Clark

    yeah i saw that this morning. i commented the following in the open thread:

    palin always wins, except for the very first time she took 2nd to christie,
    who never should have been on the poll in the first place because he made it
    clear he is NOT running.

    but then, read the article under the poll. it pissed me off. the author tried
    to spin it as palin being threatened in the primary by bachmann (or perry), and
    he thinks it’s best that palin be cheerleader.

    well okay then sir, let’s go over the poll results because you don’t seen to
    be paying attention:

    palin wins every poll by a large margin, her total increased this
    month, it’s almost higher than it’s ever been, and she beat both bachmann and
    perry in the head-to-head polls. yet all that is somehow proof that
    she’s in danger in the real elections.

    it’s really pissing me off that he spins this as palin being in some kind of
    danger, therefore she needs to be a cheerleader. wtf!!! that makes no
    sense!!!

    AND DOES ANYONE EXCEPT ME REALIZE THAT THE ONLY REASON
    BACHMANN GAINED POINTS IN THE GENERAL RESULTS AND UNSEATED WEST AS TOP VP CHOICE
    IS THAT SHE JUST ANNOUNCED AND THE MEDIA HAS BACHMANNIA????!!!!!! how
    come so many people don’t realize what’s happening to bachmann is the EXACT same
    thing that happened to cain and trump?-trump began flirting with a pres.
    run, talked tough against obama, suddenly the media covered him like crazy and a
    bunch of conservatives flocked to him even though he was never a serious
    candidate and had glaring flaws. when he announced he wasn’t running, soon after
    that, media and conservative interest died down.-cain announced his run and
    gave a great debate performance. (sound familiar, bachmann fans?) suddenly
    conservatives loved him. in the poll, the only time palin’s support dipped was
    because cain’s rose and some palin fans thought she wasn’t running and flocked
    to cain. but then, cain said some awkward things, and his campaign staff is
    starting to quit like gingrich’s did. his support among conservatives, and his
    media coverage is going down.

    bachmann is just another anybody-but-palin flavor of the month. her
    rising in this poll does NOT indicate that palin is somehow in danger of being
    overshadowed by her.

    on the other hand, we palin fans have been strongly, consistently supporting
    our fave for many months. unlike bachmann, who not as many people cared about
    until the media had bachmannia.

    btw… how come there was no palin-romney head-to-head? is the author too
    afraid to do this, too afraid that his cheerleader, palin, will beat romney? he
    better do that next time.

    • unseen1

      good  post   agree on most of it.   don"t  agree  about  why  her support fell.  If you look at the  chart  presented   at  the  hotair thread.  Palin’s support  grew  from NOv  2010  until  feb  2011   thanks to her strong showing in the midterms and  how well she  handled the lame duck  session.   Her support started to fall in Feb  over the Tucson shooting   and  dropped    as the gop establishment/rove  launched STOP PALIN campaign.  this   campaign had  some success and  Palin was able to negate most of it.    retaining around 35%  until Mid Apr  and the POTUS  campaign  kicked off.   Here  the STOP Palin campaign had more effect as the narrative of "she isn’t running " was pushed  daily.    Cain’s  perfomance had nothing to do with it.   the overriding  reason Palin’s support was dropping  was she was increasingly  seen as not  runnning.   Her bus tour , movie,   IA appearance have blunted that  thought  and allowed her support to return to  previous levels.     If  she  didn’t do the bus tour  or  keep her name  in the mix  her support  would  have continued to sink.    The only  way the  establishment   can win is to eat into that  40%   and  so far they  have not  been able too.   Bahcmann is the closest they have come   but  IMO once her record is known   people will se eher  as a immitation of Palin  and woould rather go  with the real thing.  

         

      • http://twitter.com/Super_Sachiko Jasmine Clark

        well it was a combination of all the things you said yes,  but i still think the other thing is that some palin supporters went to cain. he rose in the ha poll the same time she went down. i like cain (not as a candidate, as a person) so i kinda understand. although, those people who went  to cain so quickly were disppointed soon enough and probably back to palin again. XD

        • unseen1

          well yes some  went to  Cain because  the narrative of "she  isn’t running"  and Cain seemed like a good  second choice  in that regard  for those  palin supporters that bought into that narrative.   Cain’s  performance in the SC  also brought him his own supporters in his own right..   It is a  function of gov Palin’s strategy of waiting she will lose some support   to those  that are in the race at the present time and doing  well from those that want to be active  in their  support.  

          I just think the overriding  "she isn’t running " narrative  had  more influence  that Cain’s  performance.    but  that is  IMO  and you  could be right.  I can see both  sides.   i just noticed that  support  for Palin came  right back  after the Bus tour.    And cain didn’t  really  do anything major  negative  except that "right of return gaffe"  during that time.   

                   

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IDAKYMXLZIRLMLGEZJXV3AOO7E Vorlath

    "I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right."

    To Mr. Ishmael, be careful what you wish for, you may get it. Just don’t be surprised when Palin ends up wearing the crown.

  • http://www.facebook.com/PalinRepublican Carol Carr

    Palin will coronate herself…Game on!!  Palin 2012!

  • http://conservapost.tumblr.com Daniel Bruski

    Hot Air should never be taken seriously. If Mitt Romney or Michele Bachmann were constantly on top of their poll, I bet they wouldn’t have created their "hard realities" idiocy.

  • unseen1

    This is  poll  analyst  by Patrick is a textbook example of a person trying to fit  facts into his preconcieved  template.   He  stated in 2009  that  Palin  couldn’t  win and would be  a great  "kingmaker"  if  you  looked at  his  post  at that time  you would also  most likely  find  his reasons  for thinking  that.   (i.e  most  likely  he  thought  her resignation finished her chances,  her support  woould bleed  away,  other candidates would    be better  etc)   Every poll  since than has  shown he  was wrong.   But  instead of  taking  a new  look at the  data  he  continues to  try to push the data to  fit into his narrative.     Allah, Ed,  Patrick,  the new blogger  Tina,  much of the media  in DC and  NYC,   the GOp establishment,  the dems   all  have  accepted the narrative  for whatever  reason that Palin’s support base is small  but  vocal.  that it is  a mile  deep   by inch wde.     Even  why  facts  and data  like book sold,  speech  attendence,  TV ratings, poll results, money raised,  election midterms   reults,  amount of websites,   facebook followers,  twitter followers,  number of  comments on threads, media coverage     tell them  they  are 100% wrong and their narrative is faulty  they  continue to   believe in the narrative  because to look at the facts and change their narrative  would mean them having to admit  one they are wrong and two  that they  are really the minority 

    So  Patrick makes up every  increasingly  bizarre  cases  for why the numbers  which  are  great are  really  bad,   allah  continues to search  out  articles that  reinforce  his  view,  Ed  continues to post  up the tabloid  take on Palin……etc    And  all of these  people in the minority of the GOP   continue to scream for Palin not to run   because if  she does  the majority  will have power over them  and  they  just  can’t allow  that.

    • dontufts

      unseen ,THIS ability to see clearly is why i love to watch you do battle on HA.Its almost like some of us are brigadeer john buford riding into gettyberg and we can see the battle ahead of us and we know what beautiful ground we stand on as we hold the high ground and we will watch the tide of opposing foces break themselves on our rocky wall which is sarah.
        btw are they ever going to open up enrollment over at HA.

      • unseen1

        send  Ed or allah an  email  requesting posting rights   there are a lot of  new posters on there.  I think  they are doing it by a case by  case  basis now instead of open enrollment.   they had  problems in the past with open enrollments  a lot of trolls  and then  many bannings.  

    • IsraeliCojones

      Unseen, I follow you here and on HA, and I have two questions

      - when did you see Ed pushing tabloid stuff about Palin?
      - I know Allah was doing it, but how many times did he do it since Tucson? My guess is "almost never".

      Now that said, I know that they push unfavorable polls more than often at the detriment of polls that don’t fit their narratives. Like when Allah posted that ridiculous Alaska poll (and saying himself that it was ridiculous) on the day of the Pella premiere.

      For the rest, the newbie Tina is mediocre, Jazz something is boring, Ishmael has been spinning his polls the same way for months, and since Doctor Zero has left, there’s nobody clearly pro-Palin at HA.

      But painting them as ALL hostile is not accurate either.

      • unseen1

        Ed  just had a post up  about mika  comparing Palin to Paris  hilton.   most  of Ed’s posts on Palin  are of the that type.     

        I miss  Dr  zero  too.  

        As  far as painting them hostile   that was not  what I meant.    They have  accepted the narrative.   And therefore their actions  are in response to   that  acceptance.   this  doesn’t mean they are hostile  at  all.    I’m sure most like Palin in their  own way  but  because they  think Palin has a mile wide and inch deep support  they  don’t think she is  right for the nominee.    This is not the same has  being  hostile.    None of the  hotair people  are in the same  catagory  as say  Ace or  even come  close to  the Morning joe  types.  

        they  just have bought into the narrative and they  want  us  to "see what they see"   and thus  push articles  or  polls that reinforce  that narrative  while  for  whatever reason they  don’t  report  any  articles or  polls  that  would call into question  that narrative or when they are forced to  post on articles that do call into question they make sure to  explain why  that article or poll  isn’t  right and should not be  believed.   

        some people   think  they  do it on on purpose  and are antipalin,  me perosnally  I think it  is  just  blindspots  formed by them  falling for the narrative.  

        • IsraeliCojones

          "Ed  just had a post up  about mika  comparing Palin to Paris  hilton.  
          most  of Ed’s posts on Palin  are of the that type."

          … and Ed ripped into Mika for that, didn’t he?

          For the rest, point taken, I agree with what you say.

          For Doctor Zero, I think he left because Allah was aware that the Good Dr was more gifted than he ever was (though i think AllahP’s got talent) and that he was afraid he would be promoted on the main page…

          • unseen1

            yes  he  ripped into mika  about it.    Ed  defends  Palin a lot.    It is the topics  he chooses to defend her on that I  question.   But either way out of all of them I think Ed is the most fair to Gov Palin. 

            • PhillyCon

              Unseen:
              Ed also posts Palin’s FB posts quite frequently, and does credit her with being ahead of the curve policywise.

              I think it was QE2, and something else I can’t remember.

              • unseen1

                he  had a good post up about her india  speech and visit to israel  i think.   

                like i said  Ed    does a fair  job IRT  to Palin.    the only  time I seem him  really  against Palin was  her resignation.  

    • xthred

      Ask allahpundit why he doesn’t use the winking Palin picture anymore.

      • IsraeliCojones

        I think it’s because it’s outdated.

        And Allah changed since Tucson (a lot less snarky).

    • goldenprez

      unseen1 … A major part of this "problem" is that these people think they are "brilliant," when, in reality, they are run-of-the-mill intelligent. They cannot fathom an "unconventional" candidate with an "unconventional" "strategery."

      They are trapped in the box of "how it’s done." And, of course, they think they know "how it’s done." None of them have ever run for office, or managed a campaign, or know anything about political strategy, but they are convinced that they know "everything."

      I disagree with you on one point. They are definitely acting with "malice aforethought." I do not believe for one moment that they really like Mrs. Palin. They most certainly do not, and I am not willing to give them a pass for "good intentions." They are part and parcel of the overall effort to dissuade Mrs. Palin from running.

      This does not mean that they are part of some "conspiracy." There are a number of groups that wish to dissuade Mrs. Palin for their own reasons, and those reasons are not all the same. The Ministry of Propaganda wish to dissuade Mrs. Palin because they realize that she will "wipe the floor" with Obamao, and they are dedicated to his continuing in office. They would prefer someone easier to beat.

      The "establishment" GOP wish to dissuade Mrs. Palin because her election means the end of their power. They quite understand that her election will mean the end of the GOP as they know it, as she will bring 40-60 new conservatives into the House with her, and 10-12 new Senators. The GOP will become conservative based, and their moderate voices will force them either to get out or remain a minority with very little say.

      The Hot Air people are attempting to dissuade her because they have convinced themselves that Mrs. Palin cannot win, so they are seeking "a savior," who, of course, does not exist. As they are caught in the "conventional" box, they have also convinced themselves that, as long as she has not "announced," she is not running.

      The gigantic fallacy on the part of all these factions, is that Mrs. Palin IS running, and has been doing so for over 2 years. She understands that an "announcement" this early in the game will only have deleterious effects on her campaign. It is all downside with no upside.

      Mrs. Palin’s supporters realize that she is running, and continue their organizing and fund raising efforts. A formal announcement, is just that, a formality.It will have an impact, when the time is right, and will spur the momentum to carry her to the nomination, and the Presidency.

      Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see.

      Illegitimi non carborundum.

      Barracudas Maximus.

Open Thread

Governor Palin’s Tweets