Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

Six Reasons Sarah Palin May Be Delaying Her Entry Into the Presidential Race





In these dog days of summer, Sarah Palin supporters rightly are getting extremely anxious for her presidential announcement. I should state right upfront … I think it will happen soon. But that’s a gut feeling. Governor Palin herself has stated that she will announce her decision in either August or September. So, we’re looking at less than seven weeks maximum … but it could be any day now, right?

Every day, however, we see supporters urging her to get in — yesterday. They seem to suggest that she’s blown it big time by waiting. I see where they’re coming from. They see other candidates making moves and laying campaign groundwork. It makes sense. Nevertheless, though I don’t have any inside knowledge of the Palin plans or strategy, here are six possible reasons why Governor Palin has not yet announced her intention to run for the White House.

(And yeah, I’m making the assumption that she’s running based on these earlier clues, and that she will announce either this month or next as she has previously stated.)

1. She’s the only GOP candidate who can wait.

Just like President Obama’s famous gaffe that, "Whether we like it or not we remain a dominant military superpower" … Well, whether Sarah Palin likes it or not, she remains a dominant GOP superstar — the only one, in fact. Recent polling puts her name ID at about 95% — measurably higher than the name recognition for Mitt Romney. Heck that’s gotta be significantly higher than the name recognition of the sitting vice president. (Say it ain’t so, Joe.) Call it a silver lining of being relentlessly attacked and having her life scrutinized like no other VP candidate in history: Palin is universally known, and need not spend the early part of a campaign introducing herself to voters and potential donors. Let’s try to remember that Bill Clinton announced in October of 1991 in a similar "presidential down year." Even veteran Democrat strategist Donna Brazile gets it:

Palin can wait until the last possible moment to officially file her intent to run. Others who have already filed or are looking to file need to start developing traction-generating strategies now. However, Palin has both name recognition and the ability to quickly raise the funds needed to pull together a massive organization in the key early states. This media-savvy political professional can decide when it is the right time for her to file.

2. She clearly wants to be the last one in.

Part of any military or political campaign is knowing what you’re up against. She wants to know all her opposition upfront, and not allow a Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, or even Rick Perry to steal any of her thunder. If there is going to be any thunder in this race, it will be hers.

"Let your plans be dark as night. Then strike like a thunderbolt." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War

3. She’s unorthodox.

Part of being unconventional is operating independently from the herd. While she may want to be the last one in, perhaps she really doesn’t give a whoop what the other candidates are doing. Maybe she doesn’t care that some in the media or even among her support base will write her off as a non-candidate. She will run her campaign on her own terms. To be sure, she is studying the opposition, but they won’t sway her announcement date, nor will the constant media meme that "she’s not running." She has always marched to her own drum beat, and in the last two-plus years her supporters should have gotten used to the unpredictable: her decision to take the costly political and legal fight away from her governorship, her decision to join Fox News as a contributor, her decision to film an uplifting documentary about her state, her decision to launch a bus tour on Memorial Day weekend.

Palin may have reasons to delay that are known only to her. Maybe she wants her announcement date to be historically significant (the 91st anniversary of women’s suffrage-Aug. 26, Constitution Day - Sept. 16 have both been suggested) as she announced her gubernatorial bid on Alaska Day (Oct. 18). Maybe she just wanted to spend one last relatively tranquil summer with her husband, parents, kids and grandkids. Maybe she has calculated the financial costs of an unconventional campaign, and has determined the precise number of months she can afford to run it given fundraising forecasts. (We know she’s a budget wonk, right?) Whatever the reason, we’ll know soon enough what she has decided.

4. She wants to let her opponents rise or fall on their own merits.

Once Palin jumps in, the media will follow her around like paparazzi. It’s very doubtful they will vet her primary opponents. As we’ve already seen, GOP hopefuls have made unforced errors, and some have not performed well in the race to date. Palin may simply want to watch them operate, and not prematurely launch herself into the fray to become the media’s favorite punching bag again. Let the withering media glare fall on the other hopefuls for awhile to test their mettle and stamina before she becomes the de-facto front-runner upon her entrance. I think in racing terms it’s called "drafting." She will coast along within striking distance without having to exert herself all that much, and let other "racers" and GOP team members absorb the media and Democrat headwinds for awhile, before she makes her calculated move to the front of the pack.

5. She wants to test the mettle of her shock troops.

A key aspect of an unconventional campaign is its decentralized command structure, right? When she runs, Palin will not rely on a top-heavy, astro-turfing game plan, nor a billion-dollar bankroll. She will rely instead on a real grassroots army of committed volunteers operating somewhat independently of her control and authority. Admittedly, we don’t know exactly what that kind of campaign will look like. Certainly there will be some degree of coordination and communication with the campaign hierarchy. But right now, the ground troops are organizing in the early primary states in loosely structured teams, independent of a formal campaign. They’re meeting with local GOP leaders and reaching out to voters in person and over the phone – and they’re doing it because they are genuinely committed to Palin becoming president, and have studied and researched her record, believing she is the right person for the job.

And that relative independence and high level of commitment makes all the difference on the ground and to Palin’s assessment of her chances. It’s still a huge uphill battle, obviously, but when a Palin organizer goes into a party committee meeting and talks up Palin, the locals know that they’re not just getting the typical dog-and-pony show from a paid consultant. They’re getting authentic support, and genuine enthusiasm. Even though right now we may constitute a small percentage of voters, Palin is counting on her well-informed, highly enthusiastic supporters being her best advocates and taking the initiative to make things happen organically on the ground. It’s the only way she can run her unconventional campaign, and the best shot she has at the nomination.

6. She’s not delaying, she’s preparing.

All those pundits who urged Palin to leave the room, and "study up" might just get what they wished for – but they may not like the end result. Imagine a fully "armed", fully prepared Palin? Already possessing natural political instincts admired by both sides of the aisle, and deft administrative skills, just think of her potential to dominate when she comes out with 10-minute campaign videos laying out her specific plans to restore American greatness! Imagine when her detailed Facebook post smackdowns and policy prescriptions are on the op-ed page of USA Today!

Palin didn’t have the chance to fully prepare before being thrust into the national spotlight on the McCain ticket. That wasn’t her fault. She was busy running her state, passing bi-partisan legislation, and racking up an 88% approval rating nearly two years into her governorship. This time around, we can be sure she will leave no contingency unplanned. After two years of writing, giving speeches, granting interviews and engaging with voters across the country, she will be ready to debate and discuss federal policy in her usual straightforward, no-nonsense manner, with the polish of a national veteran.

Frankly, I think opponents and pundits had better just enjoy this little reprieve they’ve been granted from the full Palin assault. As my non-political husband noted after Palin’s recent Sean Hannity interview. "Gee, she is getting in a little extra batting practice on Mitt Romney, huh?"

Yep. She is waiting. And she is practicing her swings — before she steps up to the plate with the intent to crush it out of the park.

“He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.” — Sun Tzu, The Art of War



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  • WilliamShipley

    I’ll add another one: she understands this is a marathon and is not interested in an early lead, particularly if it means running at an unsustainable pace.  John McCain got in early, set up a big campaign and ran through all his (contributor’s) money.  I’m sure they’ve talked about this.

    When Sarah announces, it will not be like other candidates.  She will not have months of building up name recognition, of quietly going from meeting to meeting trying to get at least the local news to notice.  It will be crowded, intense, every word checked for an error.  If she announces at the end of August, and I think she will, she will be facing 15 months of rock-star intensity.  The bus tour may have made her realize just how intense it will be, even this far from the election.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_6URBNMP7T2YQ2N3KQ37VN4M7GI Cathy

      I think (4. She wants to let her opponents rise or fall on their own merits.) is the most important of all. She is allowing time for them to be vetted by media, but most importantly by each other, by the voters without her presence taking the attention from them.  Just look how the flaws of each are coming out, their lack of knowledge, experience, and forward thinking.  I think this also gives her an very good idea of how they will run their campaigns, their backers, and also how the voters are receiving them.  I think it is very telling that no one(no matter what the media, GOP, left tells us) has captured the ‘front running’ status.

      • Seabee

        I agree. And may add that Sarah is sticking by the 11th Commandment. By the time she enters the race, the other candidates will be exhausted bashing each other so she does’nt have to. She can focus like a laser beam on the most important issues confronting us.

        • larrygeary

          When she is asked if there are any candidates out there she could support, anyone she names is immediately placed in the MSM crosshairs. Last one she mentioned was, I think, Bachmann, and the MSM went to work on her. So she can oblige the questioner and name someone, knowing they will be savaged, or she can demur on the grounds that anyone she names will be attacked.

          • Seabee

            I never thought it that way. Good point. It is a double edged sword. I am sure Sarah never intended it to be that way (shark bait). Bristol was correct in saying, whatever they do (Palins), whatever they say, they be attacked anyway.So..

      • Guest

        I agree with you, Cathy. The field is too big right now and candidates need to be weeded out. Once the marginal candidates leave, Sarah can come in. Her views are well known and she certainly has name recognition so she does not need to come in early.

  • gcml

    She’s not only waiting for a home run, she’s going for the grand slam!

  • Gelston

    history will say she announced on july 3, 2009

  • ayamo

    Excellent analysis. I for one am eager for her to announce … she will announce at her time and at the right time, but boy … the suspense is killing me. :D

    • dave7777

      Me too, ayalmo. Gives you goosebumps, doesn’t it?

      • ayamo

        Heh, I had to leo.org that word. :D Yes, it definitely does.

  • Akabosan

    #7 Give the present administration enough time and rope with which to hang themselves even higher.

    #8 First LIAR always loses.  LOL

    GB

  • palin45potus

    As usual, an excellent post!

    The thing she has going for her is that her opposition is composed of Hessians, where Sarah’s Army are today’s Minutemen

  • wodiej

    I agree w your entire article but the last one the most.  She has to be confident that she will have massive grassroots support because that is the only support she will get.  Obama will have billions to spend and the establishment GOP elite simply will not concede to a true constitutional conservative.  Just remember, there are more of us than them.  And they have more money but we have more votes.

    Volunteer to help Gov. Palin in any way you can.  There is much to do besides make calls.  Put a sign in your yard.  Make food for volunteers.  Pass out flyers (I prefer this to phone calls-they are much less invasive) Attend rally"s, events, cross post articles, talk to friends, donate a few bucks.  Every thing counts!!

    • ayamo

      And above all: Arm yourself with the facts and talk those down who lie. Most of the people have bought into the lies of the MSM and repeat them, because the MSM have reported them as the truth. These are the people that you have to convince with arguments and facts.

    • bohlish

      Yes we can do all you suggest and also invent new ways to help.

    • goldenprez

      wodiej … I see you have learned one of the lessons I have been preaching, .lo these many months, about the war between the grassroots and the "establishment" GOP.

      You have it absolutely correct. Mrs. Palin has been taking this time to solidify her support with the grassroots organizations. One of the signs was her hiring, many months ago, of an organizational guru, who has been doing a fantastic, under the radar, job of pulling all the diverse elements together across the country.

      The best quote in the article above: Donna Brazile, "This media-savvy political professional can decide when it is the right time for her to file."

      Donna Brazile is a "media-savvy political professional" herself. As they say, "It takes one to know one."

      Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see.

      Illlegitimi non carborundum.

      Barracudas Maximus.

      • john norton

        I dont trust Brazile,im not forgeting what she said about the Gov. when she was running with Mcain,Ever…

        • goldenprez

          John Norton … I don’t get your point.

          Are you saying that Mrs. Palin is not a "media-savvy political professional?"

          Are you saying that Donna Brazile was not sending a message to her Democ-rat party comrades not to underestimate Mrs. Palin?

          What does calling Mrs. Palin a "media-savvy politcal professional" have to do with anything she said in 2008?

          Mrs. Palin IS a "media-savvy political professional." She has proved that over the past 20 years. And in spades since 2010. That is one of the major reasons why she is going to win the nomination and the Presidency.

          What the hell are you talking about?

          Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see.

          Illegitimi non carborundum.

          Barracudas Maximus.

          • john norton

            Im sayiny only Brazile has two faces and by your rant I seeyou only see one…

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_TJ7K27YDJOTMOAPHROKPL2A4XM Junior

          Brazile is a PUMA and stood with Hillary untill the end. The only well known Black to do it! I think Brazile dislikes Obama and just can’t seems to agree with the fraud any more. Unlike Oprah and Juan Williams that defend the fraud just because he is black.

          • john norton

            She can fool you all with her rant for ratings but not me…

          • JeannieBinVA

            Junior, Brazile was NEVER a PUMA. She was shamelessly in the tank for obama very early on, and even now only very grudgingly will admit he is not the messiah.

            That’s what makes her admission about Sarah’s strength so powerful — even someone blinded by obama’s smoke and mirrors, and who disagrees with everything Sarah stands for, can see Sarah’s power and authenticity.  

            • john norton

              Thankyou Jeannie…

            • Redford1974

              Brazile loves Obama…she supported Hillary for a short time.  I’ve never heard her utter one conservative word in her life.  She is even more left than Obama, if that’s possible.

      • http://us4palin.com devitor

        NIcole, this is hands-down one of the best one of the best articles published – if not THE BEST – on Gov. Palin’s potential Presidential candidacy. You hit every point dead-on. There really is nothing else to say to amplify the point – except to tell those who don’t get it – re-read the article.

    • JDCampbell

      I think the majority of American people have come to the conclusion that Obama does not spend money wisely. 

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/John-McKenna/100000153073641 John McKenna

      Pass out SARAH PALIN 2012 bumper stickers to those who will place one on their vehicle.  One bumper sticker will be seen by thousands.  Here are the best and lowest price bumper stickers I have found (see link below).  I sent 2000 to Iowa and they are showing up on the streets already.

      http://4sarahpalin.org

  • LLDub

    Ah HA!   As I said in another post, she’s partly using the Book of Ester as her guide,  planning each step as she goes along.    Unfortunately, unlike Ester’s story, there won’t be a bunch of (liberal) heads on pikes showing up :-( .

  • latinchic

    Ditto everything said here.

  • http://www.facebook.com/phyllis.felix Phyllis Felix

    I love her and her family…In some ways I can’t wait for her to say yes…..other ways I hope she doesn’t…….I think she would make a great President if they would let her.I don’t think they would unless the American people make some BIG CHANGES in Washington, so her hands wouldn’t be tied! (Just like our Heroes hands are tied)

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jo-Jones/573298133 Jo Jones

      She will not be running alone… she will support candidates in other races that will be on board with her agenda.  She is a TEAM player and will build a team to help her.  

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_TJ7K27YDJOTMOAPHROKPL2A4XM Junior

        Sarah, Marco and the Tea Party would run away wit the White House and Congress in 2012

    • txpappy

      Phyllis:

      Be of good cheer, for as I posted in an earlier thread our Sarah can and will be the most powerful President since George Washington.

      The key here is getting more Tea Party candidates elected to Congress. Which I think will happen naturally (the time is at hand). The courageous tea partiers will put tremendous pressure on members of Congress to do the right thing.

      Sarah will use the bully pulpit to communicate (like Reagan) her sound and much needed policies. The grassroots will in turn put pressure on Congresspeole to follow her and it will happen.

      Remember how the media has trumpeted the "Power of the Tea Party" in the debt reduction process, (in hopes, I might add to belittle the Tea Party but it backfired) and how it WORKED. Well. multiply that by about twenty and you can see the effect.

      Sarah has an uncanny way of getting positive reaction from those she negotiates with. She uses her political skills to the fullest. Literally, this lady will have the Republicans in Washington clamoring to her side, because constituents will be flaming Congress critters butts.

      I truly believe Sarah will be a very successful President in spite of all the blow back she will get from the media and Democrats. The American people have seen through the lies of the Washington media and Liberals in that cesspool. Have faith Phyllis, Sarah is a once in a lifetime
      Statesman (person) 

      Go Sarah/2012 & Beyond 

  • citizenG100

    Great article Nicole. Points 2, 3, 4, and 6 are the main reasons she is delaying I think. I believe that when she announces the start of her campaign will not be the usual type of slow rollout. I think she will hit the ground running, and that is what she is currently preparing for.

  • irishcoins

    Brilliant, Nicole. Brilliant.  Every word.

  • BoxHead1

    That’s a good list. There are a lot of +++ in announcing late. Either way, it comes down to the debate performances and not her announcement date. The #s that watch the debates w/ Palin will break records. This is where she changes the narrative.

  • MoiraCrooks

    Excellent analysis. I am anxious for her to announce but remind myself that "good things come to those who wait" :)

  • HuntingMoose

    You can post 6 more reasons for more waiting and they are also all spot on correct,

    …..but it is not what I want to hear!

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jo-Jones/573298133 Jo Jones

    Nicole, you brighten my days!  Thank you for keeping things in perspective. 
    We must trust Gov. Palin’s political instincts.
    Just soooo anxious to get out and support her… it’s so hard to watch the blithering. 

  • Benthoven

    Strong analysis, Nicole – and especially the references to "The Art of War" were spot-on.  Viewed through the Sun Tzu philosophy of war and combat, she’s doing this exactly right.   She’s playing 3-D chess while the others are playing pickupstix.

  • rightConcept

    Good one Nicole. We can only only hope you are correct. But the polls show her losing ground.

    This cycle is not the same as others. We have serious problems and people are sick and tired of the politics as usual crowd. They want to see the candidates out there announced and fighting for them. I hope she knows what she is doing. A facebook post, no matter how good, is not nearly as effective as delivering the same post in a speech on a podium in front of millions of people.

    I still think she can get in and turn it around but she has already lost supporters that she could have had. Perry will take even more.

    • citizenG100

      In past months the polls showed her losing ground to Trump, Cain, and Bachmann. Some people lost their heads. Sarah did not. Now some people are losing their heads about her "losing support" to Perry. Sarah is not losing her head (I also doubt she’s actually losing much support to Perry. The polls have shown he draws more support from Romney than from Palin).

    • tomlyn

      I don’t think she has dropped off anywhere and has gained some ground over the others.  Perry is not a big concern as he is a Rino.

    • suehimel

      If everyone decided who they were voting for when the candidates announce there would be no reason for a campaign.  SP’s retail politics will win her support when she starts her campaign.  Trust her.

  • section9

    Extremely cogent analysis.

    Well done, Nicole.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HBBC6N4RKU4MZWRUEMABECQUUE Patriot Games

    Thanks for not bashing Palin supporters who are understandably anxious–maybe you are too–and who understand your points but also understand the fierce determination of America’s enemies to bring her down–"her" being both the USA and Palin. We are all patriots here, and sincere supporters of Sarah because we understand what she is and what’s at stake.
    One point you didn’t mention, Nicole, is the one that resonates with me most. She has to have made her decision by now. If it’s NO, then I can’t imagine her withholding that from us. There’s no logic in that. So I’m confident it’s YES, and not yet announced for all the reasons you explained.
    The only alternate.path that’s conceivable–although I can’t really visualize it–is for her to say she’s going to be a super-supporter, fund-raiser, campaigner for the eventual candidate. Should that horror happen, this patriot will be going rogue.  

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