Open Thread

What’s going on this morning?

The Governor delivers the keynote address at CPAC next Saturday. She’ll also be receiving the 2012 Woman of the Year from the Clare Boothe Luce Policy Institute that same day at a luncheon before her keynote address. The C4P/O4P/GrizzlyFest is the night before in Washington, DC. If you have any questions about the DC meetup/Birthday or would like to last minute RSVP, e-mail

The Governor will be live in studio the next day for an interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday.

In case you missed it, the Governor penned an article in this week’s Newsweek about her life with Trig and she recommended you read an article from Adrienne Ross about Komen and Planned Parenthood.

Tony Lee from Human Events writes an article about PassCode Creative, the team behind the videos for the Governor’s PAC.

As for the 2012 horserace, Mitt Romney won fewer votes and a smaller percentage in this weekend’s Nevada caucuses than he did in 2008. Turnout was down in Nevada from 2008 just as turnout was down overall among the counties that Romney won in Florida. The only state in which turnout increased dramatically from 2008 was South Carolina, where Newt Gingrich blew out Mitt Romney. Obama has also taken close to a double-digit lead over Romney in the new ABC News poll, a ten point swing from just a couple of weeks ago.

The Missouri primary and the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses are on Tuesday. Newt Gingrich will not be on the Missouri primary ballot even though he will participate in the Missouri caucuses in March. The Missouri primary will not award any delegates.

Both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have plausible arguments for staying in the race. Santorum’s argument is effectively that he would win a greater percentage of Newt’s voters than the percentage of his voters that Newt would win. He’s arguing that Newt’s voters are pretty much all anti-Romney and wouldn’t ever vote for Romney in a primary while his votes are "swing" voters in the sense that they don’t harbor as much animosity against Romney as Newt’s voters do and would just split between Romney and Newt if Santorum were to drop out whereas Newt’s voters would break by a heavy margin towards Santorum if Newt were to get out.

Newt’s argument is that his support is significantly broader than Santorum’s as evidenced by the fact that he has finished ahead of Santorum in every contest since Iowa and in the last three by huge margins. Newt would also point out that his base of the South is significantly larger and disproportionately more influential in terms of the delegate count and popular vote than Santorum’s base of Midwestern evangelical states.

MN and MO are probably win-or-go-home for Santorum while NC, TN, WV, KY, OK, TX, LA, AL, and MS are probably win-or-go-home for Newt. However, a Santorum or Newt win in either AZ, MI, and OH (moreso the first two than OH) would change this race completely and knock out the other guy.

Congrats to the New York Giants and Eli Manning.

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