Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

Greta: The Palin Effect – Taking a Look at Polls from 2008





Yesterday, I covered some comments made by James E. Campbell, who stated that:

“As to Palin, I think that, on balance, she helped McCain. He went into the conventions behind and came out ahead. The later drop was tied to the financial meltdown. The evidence of that was that Bush’s approval numbers, as low as they were, dropped further and at the same time as McCain. There is no reason why Palin would have cost Bush approval points.”

I then composed some polls from the time that backed up Mr. Campbell’s assertion.

Strangely, Greta Van Susteren covered the same topic on Tuesday. Her piece (which only came to my attention this morning) didn’t use Mr. Campbell’s comments, she used different polling data, but she still proved that it was the financial crisis that cost McCain the 2008 election. She wrote:

I have heard so much about whether Governor Palin was good for the 2008 Republican ticket or not – so I decided to do something a bit old-fashioned. I went back and looked at some facts. I looked at the Fox News Channel poll numbers from the Presidential race of 2008. What I discovered was quite interesting and may rub against what has become the conventional wisdom for some as to why Senator McCain’s poll numbers went down late in the fall.

I looked at 3 sets of polls –

1/ how Senator McCain was doing right JUST BEFORE he selected Governor Palin as a running mate;

2/ how Senator McCain was doing RIGHT AFTER he chose her; and

3/ how Senator McCain was doing AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS HIT ABOUT SEPTEMBER 20.

Polling from 2008/Financial Crisis dates and polling

1 Pre-Palin polling

-If the 2008 presidential election were held today (August 19-20), would you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?

McCain 39%

Obama 42%

Other/don’t know 19%

* Senator McCain was losing by 3 points BEFORE he announced Gov Palin his running mate

2. Palin was announced as McCain’s running mate on August 29, 2008

Post-Palin polling

-If the 2008 presidential election were held today (September 8-9,2008), would you vote for:

McCain/Palin 45%

Obama/Biden 42%

Other 2%

Don’t know 10%

* After Governor Palin was selected as the running mate, Senator McCain was up 3 points (thus a 6 point increase after Governor Palin was chosen.)

3. and two Post-financial crisis polling (September 22-23, 2008)

Obama/Biden 45%

McCain/Palin 39%

Other 2%

Don’t know 13%

I looked at another poll regarding the post financial crisis and the numbers were essentially the same.

Post-financial crisis polling (October 8-9, 2008)

Obama/Biden 46%

McCain/Palin 39%

Other 3%

Don’t know 11%

* After the financial crisis, Senator McCain’s number cratered 6 points.

[Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; - Sample is 900 registered voters; MOE ±3%]

Read the whole piece here.

Greta didn’t cover George W. Bush’s numbers from the time, but the polls she used still verify the timeline. This information added to the RCP average polling data from yesterday, is just more proof how wrong those who would maliciously try to point their finger at Governor Palin for the outcome of the 2008 presidential race, are. Those who do so always have an agenda, and truth has nothing to do with it.

 

(H/T: Gary Jackson)



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  • nkthgreek

    "Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."

    –Winston Churchill

  • JDCampbell

    Sarah Palin is the conservative voice of America.

  • indemind

    Thanks Stacy, for a excellent post…. Greta is just being "Truthful" the Numbers don’t "Lie"…. and, like I always say……

    These people don’t hate Sarah because of the Lies,…the Lies exist to justify the Hate…

    SarahAmerica………………………………………………………LetSarahSpeak

  • MarkRNY

    Way to go Stacy–and Greta!

    People should save these numbers and this article.

  • IndieDogg

    I have another suggestion as to who was to "blame" for the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election…  people who voted for Barack Obama and Clueless Joe Biden.

    That’s generally who decides an election, voters.

    I agree with Mr. Limbaugh that the "mistake" on that ticket was not Sarah Palin, but we still had a choice, a clear choice. As soon as I saw side-by-side video of Obama and Deval Patrick, both Axelrod clients, delivering the same "soaring" speeches (Patrick ran first), the fraud alarms went off. Packaged product, political shell game, snake oil for sale. Was it somebody else’s fault that voters put their fingers in their ears and chanted nah, nah, nah, nah, boo, boo so they wouldn’t hear the truth that was screaming at them?

    To quote a variation on an old adage: if you keep looking around the poker table for the sucker and can’t find them, it’s probably you.

    Contrary to the perception of some, at least enough of the truth about Barack Obama was out there in 2008 to keep us from putting that ‘mistake’ in the White House. And, contrary to the current ridiculous narrative, the truth about Governor Palin was out there in 2008, as well, if you were willing to pay attention, no matter what Katie Couric or anybody else told you/us to think.

    And I firmly believe that Governor Palin was the same constitutional barracuda then as she is today. One of the remarkable things about her, among many, is that she does not seem to change over time to fit anybody’s expectation or to curry favor. What you see is what you get. And, if one paid attention, that was plain to see in 2008. The nation was hardly helpless to find the facts, at the mercy of the lamestream media. Why do rubes who buy the snake oil always blame the snake oil salesman?

    So, let’s remove all the rear-view mirrors from this glory train and get on with the task at hand, reclaiming our nation. Otherwise, we’ll be trying to figure out whose "fault" it was this time.

    It’s always our fault. Let’s fix it.

    That sure seems to be what Governor Palin’s doing.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GNTC646T64CYO54I4SDUMDT3EM otto

    Rush Limbaugh took the "been there,done that " approach to Sarah as a VP. candidate. Not good. It means Rush has fallen for the scary narrative of the left and right. This is my letter i sent to him,and for those of you who don’t get it..:

    Rush:
    First off let me say that Sarah Palin would never play second fiddle to Romney, nor would i want her to.. She would overshadow him. that’s why he downplays her. (and make no mistake he does, undercover)..Yet i do not like her being disrespected or dismissed as "been there ,done that" ,as you suggested, in your little winding diatribe. I am surprised at you. There are a whole hell of a lot of us out here that don’t have a lot of respect for Romney as a man with the strength and courage to put the people first and stop this corrupt Washington in it’s tracks.
    (a tall order i admit) … We need reform in a large way in this country. And we are not convinced Romney is the answer. I don’t give a damn about the word "conservative" We need an honest man more.
    WASHINGTON D.C. is broken and so are you. If the VP means nothing then why not Palin in  a heartbeat.? (as an excellent choice)You took the long way around to dismiss her. You fell for the "FALSE NARRATIVE" put out there by your elite buddies . Men who have wrenched this country into a corner. Men exactly like Rove. EXACTLY. 

     I dont think you get it. There are a lot of people dissatisfied with Romney. He is about as appealing as watching paint dry. And if you think we are going to settle for a continuation of the Bush/Cheney/Rove or Obama Govt. you are mistaken. WE ARE TIRED OF THIS CORRUPT WASHINGTON . This is not the same dumb America any more. It’s a new dawn my friend.The Republicans now ,just as Obama does, are using Sarah Palin like a whipping boy,and it is wrong and i will not stand for it. Your comments and your thinking are either  convoluted on this one, or this country is filled with bread gobblers and we should all be afraid. 

     The reason i gave a damn about the last election was SARAH PALIN. She is honest and true,and not the same corrupt politicians who have been wrecking this country long ,long ,before Obama. The reason McCain lost is because i believe this country was sick to death of George Bush mainly.  And why you don’t know that is beyond me. Sarah Palin brought me out to vote ,and back into caring. Why can’t people like you see that, or understand it ? The media gets it, they attack her like no other. Obama gets it, he attacks her unmercilessly with his operatives… but you downplay her in this instance., or the right  uses her as a poking stick to inflame the left. She is so much more my blind friend.
     And she remains gracious  through the whole thing..

     Like Reagan she is not a part of the Harvard snob elite class ,and they are afraid to let her in. THEY ARE AFRAID OF CHANGE BECAUSE FOR THEM LIFE IN WASHINGTON  IS PRETTY DAMMED SWEET. They kiss babies when they need to. They use our tax money to enrich themselves, they act like they care, when all they really do is tolerate us.  I don’t like the way the French revolution ended up, but at times like these ,i understand it. Do you ?
    WELL ….DO YOU ?

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