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Rasmussen Poll: McCaskill (D) 48%, Akin (R) 38%; Updated





I’m surprised the race is this close, though I suspect it won’t be for long. Via Rasmussen Reports:

What a difference one TV interview can make. Embattled Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill has now jumped to a 10-point lead over her Republican challenger, Congressman Todd Akin, in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race. Most Missouri Republicans want Akin to quit the race while most Missouri Democrats want him to stay.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Show Me State finds McCaskill earning 48% support to Akin’s 38%. Nine percent (9%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Is there anyone on the planet, other than Todd Akin, who didn’t see this comimg?

(h/t Lipstick)

Update: (h/t TT) More poll analysis from Rasmussen:

Akin led McCaskill by three before winning the Republican Primary. Normally, a candidate would increase their lead after winning a competitive primary. However, the latest results move a seat that had once been leaning in the Republican direction to Safe Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Notably, 13% of Republicans now prefer a third party candidate as do 14% of unaffiliated voters. Among Democrats, none now favor a third party option and Democratic support for McCaskill has solidified. She now earns 96% of the vote from her party. Only 70% of Republicans would vote for the current nominee of their party. That’s down from 86% earlier.

Akin was the favorite in the race until he told a television interviewer on Sunday that in cases of "legitimate rape," women’s reproductive systems shut down to prevent pregnancy. The resulting uproar has prompted Mitt Romney and other leading Republicans to call for Akin to step down as the party’s Senate candidate in Missouri. So far he has refused to do so.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of the state’s voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Akin today. That’s up from 22% before the primary.

Forty-one percent (41%) say Akin should withdraw from the campaign and have Republicans select another candidate to run against McCaskill. But just as many (42%) disagree and say Akin should not quit the race. The partisan divide reveals voter understanding of the underlying dynamics. Most Republicans (53%) think he should quit; most Democrats (56%) do not, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

To sum up Missouri has gone from "Lean Republican" to "Safe Democrat", the percentage of Missourians who view Akin very unfavorable has skyrocketed 25 points to 47%, Republicans want him out, and Democrats want him in. Shocking that.

Update II: Ed Morrissey discusses how weak a candidate McCaskill remains, and how winnable this race could be for Republicans if Akin comes to his senses and exits the race:

Claire McCaskill is undoubtedly doing a happy dance with this poll, but this isn’t good news for her, either.  Despite being the other binary choice in a race against someone who questioned the legitimacy of rape victims, McCaskill only gets 48% — not even a majority.  Her favorability rating is a zero, 48/48, with almost twice as many people rating her very unfavorable as very favorable (19/36).  While she has solidified Democratic support (96%) against Akin, drawing only 39% of independents in a two-way race with Akin on the ticket is a stunningly bad performance.  This shows just how much Republicans might gain if Akin can get out of the way and allow a better candidate to square off against a clearly unimpressive incumbent.

The Republicans can still flip this seat and retire Mccaskill. But to do so Akin needs to get out with alacrity so the GOP can replace him with a quality candidate like Sarah Steelman.



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  • http://twitter.com/enbreb Elwanda Burrell

    Talking about giving McCaskill a gift…..Akin should have stayed home and keep his mouth shut.  The GOPe seems to know how to shoot themselves in the foot even when they are winning and he is so selfish he don’t know when to hold them and when to fold them…just like Sarah said.

    • Timothy Jacques

       seppuku

    • Budvarakbar

      More like shoot themselves in the head

  • johnfromcanada

    That man Akin is a fool on many levels -  sorry, no other word for it. I’m surprised he has 38%.

  • http://lenbilen.com/ Lennart Bilén

    If McCascill pulls less than 50% when the opponent is Akin, then Sarah Steelman would be a shoo-in. The 3rd party route is the only solution unless Akin resigns.
    Sarah said as much without the benefit of any polls.

    Go, Sarahs, Go!!!.

    • Argus_C4P

      I wish she could do a 3rd party move but under Missouri law, the 3rd party date to register a candidate ended July 30. Under their law, there is no write in allowed either. Its called the sore loser law.So the only hope is for Akin to give his head a large shake and quit. That also depends on the Judges allowing him to quit, which may be unlikely as most of the judges are Democrat appointees.

  • Timothy Jacques

    My advice to Akin is to avoid Fort Marcy Park.

    • heshtesh

      My advice is for him to go there.

  • GetWhatYouPayFor

    Never trust a Rasmussen poll this early in a campaign. He has an agenda and doesn’t come out with accurate numbers until a couple of weeks out from the election, to preserve his accuracy ratings. He slanted every poll on Palin including eliminating her when he didn’t like the numbers.

  • FlyoverGuy7

    Rasmussen runs a generally well regarded poll.  This is damning for Akin’s chances. 

    Losing the Missouri Senate race we could handle.  The really serious problem is that Obama and his henchmen now have been handed an extremely potent weapon to push forward one of their chief campaign themes, their lie that the GOP is waging war against American women.  That’s rubbish, of course.
     
    Obama only has to win a couple additional percentage points from women in order to probably tip several teetering battleground states into his Electoral College vote column.  That may be the whole ballgame.  

    The point is, within hours of his unfortunate interview performance, this thing became way bigger than Akin and his career, fighting political correctness, or anything about him or Missouri.  It’s about whether ObamaCare becomes permanent, about Obama now being way more likely to pick the next 2 or 3 more Supreme Court Justices, the EPA being able to clamp Cap and Trade down on our economy by the back door, and many other really nasty things a second Obama term would bring us.

    Maybe Akin needs some doses of electroshock therapy over the weekend to jolt him back to reality.  If he doesn’t wake up very soon, he’ll likely be a pariah among all but liberal Americans for the rest of his life.  He should think about that.

    • BlueGood

      FlyoverGuy, I saw 70 Pennsylvannia National Guard Armoured Vehicles go through my neighbourhood in Ontario today.

      They are leaving CFB Petawawa (where my son is stationed), for home, a two day treck.

      I note this because I read your other post today about ANYTHING can happen…..

      I verily believe, the ka ka will hit the fan in some form or another quite soon.

      As a watcher of world events, and self taught historian, with all the convergeances of the Arab Spring Fallout, Occupy Everywhere from Wall Street to Uranus, China and Russian build-up, Iran threatening, Israel all but on her own, Europia Financially Imploding, violence threatened at both of your RNC and DNC Conventions, I am in agreement with your post….

      I pray to be wrong, but as I told a buddy in Dec. 2010, we will have major conflict withing 5 years, during Arab spring of 2011, I called him and revised my estimate to 3 years….

      God Bless!

      • heshtesh

        Surprised to see Petawawa mentioned, that’s where i was born.:)

        • BlueGood

          Well…HELLO! I live closer to Arnprior…Good of you to reply Heshtesh!…I wish you well!

      • FlyoverGuy7

        I appreciate your remarks. 

        Say, are there really lots of loonies up there?  Do you keep them in bins?

        (couldn’t help myself, sorry)

        • BlueGood

          very sad….

          However, if you look at the G-20 Countries….our "Looney" is doing not too badly thank you!

          Angela Merkel was quite impressed when she was here last week, and seeing as her country is now the Engine of Europia, and she is loath to prop up Greeced Greece, Spain, Italy etc…. her vote of confidence in Canada, will help net us a $400 BILLION Free Trade Deal….

          Not bad for a Looney of two hunh??

          And now talk is, we will build a pipe line to both the WEST and EAST Coast, AND a new State of the Art Refinery for all our Ethical Oil.

          Personally, I would rather we deal with Sarah!….

          but as you well know, you go to the markets where there are people who appreciate your goods!

          P.S. as of today Vast Majority of Canadians REJECT Chinese take over of Mega Oil Sands Project Nexen…

          So, all this to answer your second question, we keep our "Loonies" not in bins, but in thick and RICH Alberta soil…………want some???

          cheers!

          • FlyoverGuy7

            Very nice to hear that news from up yonder.  Canada has a great deal to feel good about, I think.   Really fantastic about that $400B free trade deal, eh ?  I hope we give Obama the boot. Then we can build the upper section of the Keystone Pipeline.  It makes me sick that, because of how Obama has obstructed it, you folks have to seek a market westward.  Strategically, it’d be so good for the U.S. to gain long term access to loads of that gooey black stuff.  My impression is China is really moving fast to gain two firm footholds  in Canada via Vancouver.  Does Canada permit China (or, technically its state-controlled giant firms) to obtain majority control of your companies?  I earnestly hope not.  If you folks can try to delay for a few more months, maybe Romney will signal a green light to complete a big, long term deal between our two countries.  Oh, Canada — what a beautiful country…..

            • BlueGood

              READ second LAST paragraph of above stated post!

              and I truly think that no matter, we can no longer rely upon a friendly American Market for goods, so the WEST and East Pipe lines will be pushed by our PEOPLE…in addition to NEW Refineries…then you can buy our finished products as well!

              Thank your Pres for that.

              We are smacking down the Eco Freaks and their demands for 7,000 years of envoirnmental studies for a new outhouse….

              Your EPA seems to want to control the number of toilet paper sections you use to wipe yr butt!

              gee FlyoverGuy are you and I Diplomats now???

              LMAO!

  • anyonebutbarry2012

    have no respect for akin, what a selfish person he is. go already.

  • Audrey_I

    Todd Akin has a tremendous ego and is quite willing to have Clair McCaskil reelected to the Senate.  The Democrats donated to his campaign.  Perhaps the Democrats bribed him to run, get the Republican nomination and then throw the election. 

    • Budvarakbar

       Very Plausible —

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Carolyn-Dixon/100000062171632 Carolyn Dixon

       mccaskill up by 10 according to rasmussen poll released to day.  state now is safely lean in dem column.  akin and huckabee have lost this state for us and now the chance of winning the senate is questionable.

  • isabel matos

    Blessed are those who heed warnings!

    The humiliation will hopefully force him to succumb to public pressure and make him quit.

    People who lie to themselves are always in for very rude awakenings.

  • n4cerinc
    • patnatasha

      huck needs to convince him to drop out.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Carolyn-Dixon/100000062171632 Carolyn Dixon

       am not surprised as this is probably the mindset of huckabee.  why does he get a speaking slot at the gop convention and not sarah?  she came out and clearly stated this was a time for akin to fold em.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Pete-Petretich/100002088167892 Pete Petretich

      Huck is the white Jesse Jackson.

      Am I allowed to say that? LOL…

  • patnatasha

    akin is being selfish.

  • conservativemama

    Can anyone get through to this man?  Is his family as deluded as he? His legacy, I don’t care what else he’s done, he will be trashed if he loses this and loses our shot at winning the Senate. Not to mention the top of the ticket.

  • HuntingMoose

    ====================================================================

    what about supporting the Libertarian Candidate?

    Anything But McCaskill

    =================================================================

    http://www.jonathandine.com/why-im-running

    Replacing that atkin guy who is trying to get the Biden-Award may be problematic since first he has to vacate, democratic judges need to approve his vacating and our Sarah Steelman is barred according to the sore loser law and a third party candidate is too late for the july 30th deadline.

    All this Jonathan Dine guy need to say is he will vote to revoke obamacare and voters will flock to him. Does anyone know anything about him?

    Pretty sure that if we start promoting this guy, as bonus quite a few Ron Paul fanatics will move to this state just to get finally their 3rd party foothold in the door.

  • Lemuel Vargas

    Or, as Sarah Palin suggested, let the other Sarah run as a 3rd party candidate if Akin digs on his heels, figernails and toenails. Because that is what he will do. Either his ego has gotten too big for him to handle, someone close to him is saying for him to stay in the race or he has been grasping at straws such as the democrats really really love him and will vote for him.

    • patnatasha

      that would be the huckster.

    • conservativemama

      If he’s going to lose to Claire anyway, absolutely run a third candidate. And if a Palin endorsed 3rd candidate beats the Huckie’s Akin, all the better.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Carolyn-Dixon/100000062171632 Carolyn Dixon

       his buddy huckabee has told him to stay in.  probably has the same mindset as aiken.  me thinks huckabee is jealous of gov palin and wants to rub his endorsement in her face.

  • Betsey_Ross

    I could get behind him if he had a proven track record of fighting and not taking any garbage from the Left.  Apparently he took their money so there is no fight in him.  Show us what you are made of, Todd Aikin.  You have a week to show us you can fight and go after Ms. Claire.  She is easily beatable.  Are you man enough to get it done?  Probably not.  Just another clueless politician.

  • http://twitter.com/JamesColumbiaMO JamesColumbiaMo

    The prevailing strategy now in Missouri is that Todd Akin could switch places with Ann Wagner who is currently running for his congressional seat.  Under Missouri law, it is permitted to happen.  Ann Wagner could run for U.S. Senate instead, while Akin runs to retain his congressional seat, which would be easier for him to win.  Ann Wagner is an outstanding conservative, and would definitely be an asset for us in the U.S. Senate. 

  • Ceejay

    Should send Akin a deck of cards…………and note to "fold them" .  JMO

  • independents4palin

    If Akin does not drop out of the race and loses a seat that is needed to take over the Senate, then Todd Akin and Mike Huckabee deserve the blame.

  • carmtom13

    They need to put a woman to run against Mrs obamacare (mccaskill) , a man she would just change the name on the ad. Steelman would do very well against her.

  • palindia

    Rasmussen cooks up polls (till a couple of weeks before the election) to their advantage just like PPP does.  This one is cooked up to get Akin out

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