Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

Josh Jordan: The Two Polls That Have Team Obama Terrified





Via Josh Jordan at the National Review:

But of all the polls that have been released, there are two polls that will have Team Obama waking up in a cold sweat knowing that if these polls are even somewhat accurate they might be on the other end of a dramatic victory on Election Day: The party-affiliation polls from Gallup and Rasmussen.

Gallup released a demographic poll of likely voters from October 1 through October 24. The poll is of 9,424 likely voters — a large enough sample that the maximum margin of error is one point. What that means is unlike smaller national polls, this is a very comprehensive poll of the electorate that has much more reliability, especially in the subgroups, than any current national poll. The headline of the poll, “2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008,” would make Team Obama want to pick up the phone and reserve Grant Park for election-night festivities, but looking at the data inside may have them preferring to rent out a Lou Malnati’s so they could drown their sorrows in a deep-dish pizza as the results pour in.

In 2008 Gallup found the party breakdown of the electorate to be 39 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans, and 31 percent independents. That ten-point advantage grew to twelve points when independents were asked which party they typically leaned to, with 54 percent identifying as Democrats and 42 percent Republicans.

From that sample, Gallup has predicted Democratic turnout to be ten points higher than Republicans, and that independents would break to Obama. In 2008 Democrats did outperform Republicans by a slightly smaller margin, seven points, and independents did break to Obama by eight points. So while they might have overstated Democratic support slightly, they were able to see the underlying trend which was a huge jump from 2004, an election that was just about even.

In the current tracking poll, Gallup finds the ten-point advantage for Democrats has now turned into a one-point Republican advantage. The current party breakdown is now 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. And just in like 2008, that one-point advantage increases when independents are asked which party they typically lean to, with 49 percent identifying as Republicans and 46 percent Democrats. That number backs up the trends in other polling showing Romney leading among independents by large margins.

More.



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  • suehimel

    I have seen so many analyses of polls that my head is swimming.  I only hope this one is right.  I think I am going to stop looking at polls and analyses of them and spend the extra time walking.  That will do more to GOTV than any poll.

    • wpmwindsong

      That is exactly what Mark Levin said this evening.  The polls mean nothing.  They only try to predict, and they are all over the place. 

      They should not make any difference on how you vote; and the only important thing is to get out AND vote, and to get out THE vote.  Reading a poll does nothing to elect someone. 

  • pipam12

    landslide for Romney

  • CBDenver

    The headline of the linked article is so bogus.   "2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008″ 

    This is what they really mean:  "The [demographic] composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008″.  In other words, the mix of male/female, ethnic groups, age groups — i.e. demographics — are similar.  But is that what counts in an election?  Only if you think demographic groups vote in lockstep. 

    The article goes on to say "the largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with
    the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters".  Oh, so now we finally get to the important part.  People’s party affiliations have shifted!  "[T]he electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008″.  OK, now buried in the 5th paragraph we finally get to the important point.  I guess the folks at Gallup really didn’t want to have to admit this salient fact.

  • HuntingMoose

    ====================================================

    No need for Polls to know what is going on.

    It is absolutely clear that the thrill and honeymoon enthusiasm for Obama is gone and in many cases even has been replaced with anger against obama

    On the republican and independ there is an enormous will and drive to vote against Obama so many more will vote and not stay home.

    • dave7777

      And yet…the Fox poll released today said the voters think Obama is more qualifed to handle the Benghazi event than Romney. Go figure.

  • PalinPrez

    Only if Sarah was running.  California would be in play.

    • wodiej

      I don’t know why California would be in play.  That is major liberal and they hate her.  

      • GetWhatYouPayFor

        If we must speak in terms of hate………..they certainly don’t love Ryan Romney.

      • PalinPrez

         Once she campaigns and the people get to know her, the whole political landscape in CA would change.  The populace is not "major liberal." 

  • wodiej

    Polls aren’t predictions but it does bring some comfort to think obama will not be president much longer.  Especially for businesses, the unemployed etc.  

  • CapitalG

    Don’t even trust the polls this election cycle. There are WAY too many disgruntled FAUXbama voters and I’ve never seen people so eager to vote GOP. In 2008 you had kids guilt tripping their parents into voting FAUXbama and that simply isn’t happening this year.

    I will be completely baffled if voters re-elect FAUXbama. A Romney win and GOP gains seems most likely. Hopefully we can take the Senate as well.

    I don’t like how Romney was largely silent while Palin chose to lead and inspired people even after the 2008 loss. It wasn’t ‘McCain Hobbits’ who rose up and formed the TEA Party. Had McCain chose Pawlenty or someone for VP I’m not even sure there would have been a grassroots inspiration to form the TEA Party. Who would have have led a party resurgence?

    Romney had the benefit of silence being the GOP ‘chosen one’ for 2012. Every other candidate was an outsider battling others to face Romney in the final round. What if Palin had remained silent as well?

  • http://twitter.com/JimForbes_Pasco ? Jim ?

     OCTOBER 4,2008
    Carson California Rally
    She packed ‘um in.  Even some feminist leaders were there with her.

  • Freempg

    Obama will be wiped out in a landslide. He will view it as his greatest achievement, confirmation of a job well done.

    Obama: ‘I’d rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president’

    • barracuda43

      Obama will go down worst president in history. Carter will break out the champaign!

  • Patriot41

    Registration numbers do matter and I believe are more accurate in reporting the voter likely response, then any polling agency asking potential voters who they are going to vote for.  Recent reports by polling agencies, that they can only rely on about 9 % of actual voter responses, makes this an even more questionable way to determine how voters will actually respond.

    While registration numbers put both parties within four to five percent of one another, that is not necessarily an indication of how the vote will come down.  Independents are definitely going to make the difference, because they do now consists of about 1/3rd of the registered voters.  I would differ with the findings on how the independent voters are leaning, in that it is more like 70% are unhappy with Obama and the democrats in Congress.

    One of the important factors that I have been following over the last year or so, is the supporting figures for the president that has been reported by the polling agencies.  These figures show that he has been garnering continual overall support, in the high 40 percentile range.  That fact, shows me that those prone to support Obama, no matter what he does, will be voting democrat in this next election.  I believe that is where Romney got his figures for his statement about the 47%.  In this case, there are some crossover votes in play, about 15% if the reported registration facts are true.  That would be 15% of the independent voters.  If this is the case, then we are looking at 13% of the independent vote going toward the Romney and republican candidates.  This of course, does not take into consideration of how many votes will go to the third party libertarian candidate.  If it is 5 %, it can throw the vote to Obama and the democrats.  This is why many of the pundits are calling this election for Obama.

    For half of the voters of this nation, leadership does play a role in how they vote.  I don’t know how recently those registration numbers were compiled, but I suspect they are not current, as I have heard many comments recently, about voters changing their registration.  Then too, there are the crossover voters who never bother to change their registration, when serious problems in the nation are prevalent and they certainly are prevalent at this time.  One also has to consider the Tea Party movement as well, as that movement consists of several different party members and they are primarily concerned with the leadership in this country.

    What we have now, is a very close reported contest which has been reflected in the polls, predicated on the response of all of the different party members involved.  More importantly, there is so much uncertainty, that this election can certainly be thrown by fraud.  It reminds me a whole lot of the Nixon/JFK election.  Reading the news every day, I am seeing reports of fraud across this country and I have no doubt, that is exactly what the democrats are up to.  They know the mood of this country is swinging toward a republican victory and the only way they are going to win this election, is to insure that it is manipulated, after all the final vote tally is all that counts.

    As a patriotic American, I am counting on my fellow countrymen, to overcome the apparent fraud that is taking place in our election system.  I still believe there are enough patriots in this country, to overcome all of the evil that persist in this government and those who support winning by any means. 

  • alien4palin

    Quoting Sarah: "Polls are for Strippers and Cross Country Skiers."
    Vote and helping to get folks out to vote is absolutely imperative

  • daisy_mae

    Hey Doug thanks so much for posting this.  I try not to pay too much attention to polls but sometimes find myself unable to resist taking a peek, like a moth to flame I guess.  This one looks very encouraging and gives me hope.  I am off from work election day and the following day in case it’s going to be a long night.  I for sure won’t be able to go to bed without knowing the results!  Plus I want to hang out with you guys here during it all! 

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