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Gallup | U.S. Voter Turnout Will Likely Fall Short of 2004, 2008

Thus, the current data suggest turnout could fall in between the lower levels of 1996 and 2000 and the higher levels of 2004 and 2008.

The current results are based on Gallup Daily election tracking from Oct. 15-28. Voters’ thought given to the election and voting intentions often increase closer to Election Day. However, superstorm Sandy has overtaken the election campaign as the dominant news event in recent days, which could in turn affect voters’ attention to the campaign and voting intentions. Gallup has suspended its election tracking due to concerns about being able to adequately represent the U.S. electorate with so many in the East affected by the storm.

Additionally, the practical impact of Sandy and the storm’s aftermath on voter participation this year is unclear, particularly in areas of the East and Mid-Atlantic where the effects could linger through Election Day on Nov. 6. Many voters in that area of the country who are engaged in the election and have every intention of voting may be unable to go to the polls on Election Day. Sandy could also have an effect on early voting in those states, though early voting is far less common in the East than in other parts of the country.


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