Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

One Example of a Questionable Poll, Update: And One More

These polls are all too common.  After days of a much closer match-up from polls like Rasmussen in Iowa, a new poll was released by Gravis Marketing which simply does not add up when you examine the data.

In it, it reflects President Obama with a 4-point lead in the state.  In addition, it has early voter tallies of 63 for Obama and 28 for Romney.

Let the unskewing begin:

First, the poll reflects 49% for Obama with 45% for Romney, with 6% undecided.  According to most pollsters, the undecided voters always tend to go for the challenger and not the incumbent.

Second, the early-voting numbers are mysterious.  While Romney leads voters who are voting on Tuesday by 54-42, Obama leads with early voters by 63-28.

According to the National Journal which gets its numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State, requested ballots total 557,432 ballots broken down by the following party percentages:

43.3% / 32.2% / 24.4% (D/R/Other)

If you give Obama all of the Democrats: 43.3% plus all of the Independents: 24.4% this would equal about 68%.  The Gravis poll however has Romney leading Obama among independents by 5 whole points in the overall poll.

Now, I understand that maybe they picked a larger sample of the Democrats among early voters alone.  There are different ways to achieve percentages.  But you would think that there would be some kind of a correlating pattern between the actual percentages of absentee ballots sent out by party and the actual returns.

Finally, the poll over-samples Democrats by +6 points.  Yet, Obama only comes out with a 4-point lead.  That’s what most people see and move on.  Yet, it suggests that 2% of Democrats won’t vote for Obama while the early-voting results suggest that perhaps some Republicans may be voting for Obama.

At the end of the day, something clearly stinks or someone has a broken calculator.


And here is another.  The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows Obama leading Romney in Ohio by six points as of today.

Their polling sample?

Strong Democrat, Not Strong Democrat, and Democrat Leaning Independent = 48% of their sample

Strong Republican, Not Strong Republican, and Republican Leaning Independent = 41% of their sample

Tags: , , , ,

Comment Policy: The Editors reserve the right to delete any comments which in their sole discretion are deemed false or misleading, profane, pornographic, defamatory, harassment, name calling, libelous, threatening, or otherwise inappropriate. Additionally, the Editors reserve the right to ban any registered poster who, in their sole discretion, violates the terms of use. Do not post any information about yourself reasonably construed as private or confidential. Conservatives4Palin and its contributors are not liable if users allow others to contact them offsite.

Open Thread

Governor Palin’s Tweets