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Sean Trende | The Political Landscape After 2012

Republicans are still almost at a postwar high in the House of Representatives, with only 1946 and 2010 resulting in a larger share of the chamber going Republican. This is somewhat due to redistricting (more on that in a subsequent article). But even if you assume that redistricting saved the party 20 seats — a very generous assumption — the GOP would find itself only a slight minority in the lower chamber, and well above its postwar average. Some political scientistshave even argued that redistricting was basically a wash between the parties, and didn’t play a huge factor in the outcome.

The Senate picture does show some signs of decline for Republicans, although it is still nowhere near the depths it plumbed from the late 1950s through the early 1970s. This tendency will likely continue if Republicans continue to suffer from self-inflicted wounds. At the same time, 24 states went for Mitt Romney and 26 states were more Republican than the country as a whole, suggesting that the basic Senate playing field for Republicans is still intact.


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