Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

Skewed Polling Meets Energized Conservatives





My colleague and fellow C4P editor Steve Flesher has a great article at American Thinker in which he deconstructs some of the laughably biased polls we’re seeing from the mainstream media. Here’s an excerpt.

Take  the latest poll coming out of Iowa, for example. It was conducted by  the Des Moines Register and now sits atop the other Iowa polls over at Real  Clear Politics. It claims Obama is now leading Romney by 47-42. This  means that 11 percent are undecided. If you follow the logic of Dick Morris –  that undecided voters always vote against the embattled incumbent — the actual  result is 53-47 for Romney thereby giving the Governor the state’s electoral  votes.

But  it doesn’t stop there. In fact, if you read the findings within the poll,  coupled with the average turnout of Iowa voters from 2000, 2004, and 2008 of  1,426,021 voters, you come to numbers which are very close to the  53-47.

The  poll tells us many interesting details when you read down a  bit:

1.)  Obama is allegedly ahead of Romney by 22 points among early  voters.

2.)  Romney is ahead of Obama by eight points with voters who will be voting  Tuesday.

3.)  Romney is ahead of Obama among independents by four points.

To begin with, according to the  Associated Press, 614,000 early ballots were sent out in Iowa. Of  those, 43% were Democrats and 32% were Republicans. This means that 25% of the  early ballots were either independents or third party. That’s only an 11-point  advantage for Democrats and considering the Des Moines Register poll reveals  that Romney is ahead four points with independents, its finding of Obama being  ahead by 22 points among early voters would suggest that they missed quite a few  Republican and Independent early voters in their survey..

Read Steve’s entire piece here. Speaking of skewed polls, today’s offering from CNN takes the cake. In a poll which shows Mitt Romney leading Obama by 22 points with Independents, CNN somehow manages to show the two candidates tied.  How do they manage this, you ask? By constructing an alternate universe in which tomorrow’s electorate will have a D+11 bias.  Via Twitchy:

The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29):

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls.

[...]

There’s more. The poll shows Mitt Romney beating President Obama among Independents 59-37, an incredible 22-point lead.

Does anyone seriously believe Romney can win Indies by more than 20 points and still come out tied in the popular vote?

I’ll go out on a limb here. If either candidate wins Indies by 22 points, we’ll be looking at a Reagan-style landslide, not a virtual tie.



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  • TENCOLE

    Mitt will win in a landslide…….bet on it. 

    • johnfromcanada

      Yes, I would say that if skewed polls this late in the game are showing Obama as no better than tied, he’s toast. Landslide or not, Romney will win.

  • TangledThorns

    If you look at 2004 it was very evenly split as it was a close election too. More over the Independent was split between Bush and Kerry. I’m not a better man but it seems like there are two outcomes, either Obama hits 280 or Mitt wins way into the 300s of a landslide, so far its looking like the latter.

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

  • John_Frank

    Doug, thanks for bringing this post to our attention.

    Just as we have seen the corruption of the media in their effort to prop up Obama, much of the public polling industry have also joined the Ministry of Truth.

  • lanahi

    Very thorough discussion here of all aspects of the polling:
     http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2228359/Romney-campaign-internal-polling-puts-Republican-nominee-point-ahead-Ohio.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

    Their conclusion:
    "Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio – the swing state that many believe could decide the election, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

    Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.

    If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are correct – and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama – then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President."

  • AJ40

    Skewed polling–

    My beef, exactly, but as i’ve mentioned in other commentaries,these polls and others in the influential East are stuck in amber with their own staid traditions and they really don’t like or respect anyone in the Trans-Mississippi West.  Now I think it’s going to be a blow out for Romney, but again, these easterners +the media tighten up these polls mostly because they are for Obama but also because they like tight races. It sells media. But I got so sick and tired of the polling I just stopped listening and watching for the most part.  But unlike some, I do like Dick Morris.  I admit he gets a little overexuberant at times, but he’s generally right most of the time….better than Karl Rove.

  • 1PatsyPorkchop1

    Thank you for debunking facts and their notorious liberal bias. Math is hard and science is evil.

  • BrianusBerkleianus

    moved

  • BrianusBerkleianus

    moved

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