Categorized | Commentary/Editorial

Skewed Polling Meets Energized Conservatives

My colleague and fellow C4P editor Steve Flesher has a great article at American Thinker in which he deconstructs some of the laughably biased polls we’re seeing from the mainstream media. Here’s an excerpt.

Take  the latest poll coming out of Iowa, for example. It was conducted by  the Des Moines Register and now sits atop the other Iowa polls over at Real  Clear Politics. It claims Obama is now leading Romney by 47-42. This  means that 11 percent are undecided. If you follow the logic of Dick Morris —  that undecided voters always vote against the embattled incumbent — the actual  result is 53-47 for Romney thereby giving the Governor the state’s electoral  votes.

But  it doesn’t stop there. In fact, if you read the findings within the poll,  coupled with the average turnout of Iowa voters from 2000, 2004, and 2008 of  1,426,021 voters, you come to numbers which are very close to the  53-47.

The  poll tells us many interesting details when you read down a  bit:

1.)  Obama is allegedly ahead of Romney by 22 points among early  voters.

2.)  Romney is ahead of Obama by eight points with voters who will be voting  Tuesday.

3.)  Romney is ahead of Obama among independents by four points.

To begin with, according to the  Associated Press, 614,000 early ballots were sent out in Iowa. Of  those, 43% were Democrats and 32% were Republicans. This means that 25% of the  early ballots were either independents or third party. That’s only an 11-point  advantage for Democrats and considering the Des Moines Register poll reveals  that Romney is ahead four points with independents, its finding of Obama being  ahead by 22 points among early voters would suggest that they missed quite a few  Republican and Independent early voters in their survey..

Read Steve’s entire piece here. Speaking of skewed polls, today’s offering from CNN takes the cake. In a poll which shows Mitt Romney leading Obama by 22 points with Independents, CNN somehow manages to show the two candidates tied.  How do they manage this, you ask? By constructing an alternate universe in which tomorrow’s electorate will have a D+11 bias.  Via Twitchy:

The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29):

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls.


There’s more. The poll shows Mitt Romney beating President Obama among Independents 59-37, an incredible 22-point lead.

Does anyone seriously believe Romney can win Indies by more than 20 points and still come out tied in the popular vote?

I’ll go out on a limb here. If either candidate wins Indies by 22 points, we’ll be looking at a Reagan-style landslide, not a virtual tie.

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