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Sean Trende | What 2012 Population Estimates Could Mean in 2020

But one of the more interesting things that we can do with the census estimates is compare them to the 2010 numbers, and extrapolate those changes in numbers out to 2020. With those estimates for the next decennial count, we can calculate what the apportionment of congressional seats the next time around would look like. I did this in 2011, and came up with the following results:

Winners: California (+1), Colorado (+1), Florida (+1), North Carolina (+1), Oregon (+1), Texas (+3).

Losers: Illinois (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), New York (-1), Ohio (-1), Pennsylvania (-1), Rhode Island (-1), West Virginia (-1).

If we take the latest estimates and do a simple linear extrapolation (take the difference between the 2010 and 2012 numbers, multiply by five, add that to the 2010 figures), we get the following updated results:

Winners: California (+1), Colorado (+1), Florida (+1), North Carolina (+1), Texas (+2), Virginia (+1).

Losers: Illinois (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), Ohio (-1), Pennsylvania (-1), Rhode Island (-1), West Virginia (-1).

Some of these changes have some significance. California resumes its upward march in seats. New York fails to lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census. Michigan falls to 13 seats, its fewest since the 1910 census, while Ohio falls to 15 districts, the fewest it has had since the 1820s.


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