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TAS | Hopefully the next GOP candidate will have less in common with John Kerry





Barack Obama took the Republicans’ best shot and won a second term. In an even stronger tribute to his campaign team’s skills and get-out-the-vote operation, the president beat Republican challenger Mitt Romney in every meaningful swing state except North Carolina—and even there he came within 100,000 votes.

Nevertheless, some perspective is in order. Much of the post-election commentary suggests we have witnessed a party realignment on par with the Democrats’ New Deal coalition or the Republican majority after the Civil War. At the very least, you would think Obama won a 49-state landslide like re-elected incumbents Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984.

In fact, after some rounding up, Obama received 51 percent of the popular vote to Romney’s 48 percent. That’s exactly how George W. Bush did against John Kerry in 2004. Remember all the talk of a permanent Republican majority? The reality was Bush barely squeaked back into office, and those Republican majorities didn’t even survive the next election.

The Obama-Romney contest is similar to the 2004 election in many respects. In both cases, the country was less than enthusiastic about the incumbent president and could have been persuaded to part with him. In both cases, swing voters needed only to be convinced that the opposition party had produced a viable alternative. And in both cases, the incumbent relied heavily on an enthusiastic base driven by social issues and cultural affinity.

Just as Bush did to Kerry, Obama went negative against Romney early to try to preemptively disqualify him in the minds of wavering independents. Polls in purple states found that many battleground voters regarded Obama as a failure. But they also came to view Romney as too out of touch to be president.

More.



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  • socon

    ABO was always BS.  Romney was the candidate who wasn’t there.                                                           
    Sarah was in a difficult position in 2012 and she agreed to go along to get along with the GOP–but I bet she will never do so again.

    I knew Myth never had a chance.  I also knew that throwing your principles under the bus was stupid and cowardly.  How did it work out for us?

    A pox on the fear mongers of the GOP.

    • John_Frank

      Sarah was in a difficult position in 2012 and she agreed to go along to
      get along with the GOP–but I bet she will never do so again.

      How did the Governor "go along, to get along?"

      She pushed back against Romney, the establishment nominee during the Presidential primary.

      She focused on Senate, House and State races, bucking the RNC as appropriate.

      She was not invited to the RNC convention, and the RNC / Romney campaign held her at arm’s length during the general campaign.

      In all the circumstances, IMV the Governor played her cards perfectly.

      • socon

        Sarah did the best she could in difficult circumstances, but I don’t think she had much choice.    I believe she would have preferred to be more outspoken but demurred for the sake of Republicans and country.
        I don’t think Sarah is happy about the fact so many Republicans used her to push Romney’s candidacy either.  

        I don’t think the Governor will remain quiet in 2016.

        Overall, the 2012 Republican Presidential campaign was a disaster for all of us, and to pretend otherwise is putting lipstick on a pig.  IMO

        • John_Frank

          ….but I don’t think she had much choice.    I believe she would have preferred to be more outspoken but demurred for the sake of Republicans and country.

          Well, as the Governor said about the RNC Convention, it is not a Sadie Hawkins dance. She was not invited. The RNC and the Romney campaign did not want her around.

          • socon

            Like I said–Sarah didn’t have much choice but to go along.

            I found it especially onerous that many hid behind Sarah’s skirts to push Romney’s candidacy.

            • John_Frank

              Like I said–Sarah didn’t have much choice but to go along.

              "Go along" implies that one agrees. The Governor did not agree, she was told that she was not wanted. Big difference.

              I found it especially onerous that many hid behind Sarah’s skirts to push Romney’s candidacy.

              The Governor believed in ABO. After Ryan was nominated, she urged people to support the Romney/Ryan candidacy. Sarahpac donated 5k to the Romney campaign and the weekend before the election, she urged people to get out and vote for Romney.

              She can not be blamed for Romney’s defeat.

              As to people using the Governor’s name to push Romney … that tactic was used by Republican activists in an effort to get people to support Romney.

              Many of the tactics used by Republican activists to get people to vote for Romney turned off people.

              • socon

                I don’t know who you’re arguing with–but it’s not me.   First you said Sarah pushed back against Romney and then you said she believed in ABO, gave Mitt $5000.00 and urged people to get out and vote for him.  Which is it?

                Using Sarah’s name wasn’t just a tactic used by activists, it was used by many here on this blog.  I thought it was sickening.

                Who said Sarah should be blamed for Romney’s defeat?  Not I.  You’re just shadow-boxing.

                Sarah’s just a human being like you and me–she’s not Super Woman like some want to think she is.  Sarah went along with Romney’s candidacy because she really didn’t have much choice.

                You haven’t refuted one statement I’ve made.  You just don’t like to hear the truth.

                That’s not my problem.

                • John_Frank

                  The truth is that Governor Palin did not go along to get along as some have suggested.

                  The truth is that Governor Palin was not wanted by the RNC and the Romney campaign.

                  • socon

                    Yes she did.  You even admitted it.  Don’t you have something better to do than contradict yourself?

                    Now leave me alone you big bully.

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