This is simply math. As long as Republicans drive minority voters away, they will not be a nationally competitive party. Sure, congressional district boundaries, as currently drawn, will most likely keep the GOP in the House majority for the duration of this decade and until the 2022 election, the first after the next census. But Republicans had better pray that the 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections go their way and they can get another favorable remapping; otherwise, their situation in the House could change markedly as well.
But the GOP’s problems aren’t just about race and ethnicity. While Republicans still do better than Democrats among voters 40 and older, particularly those over 65, they are losing to Democrats among voters in their 30s—and losing badly among those under 30. As someone who just turned 59, I can make this next provocative statement: Democrats are doing better among voters who can be considered the future. Republicans are doing well among those who could be described as the pre-dead.
As those voters whose political identities were strongly influenced by the success of Ronald Reagan’s presidency and the less-than-successful tenure of Jimmy Carter begin to lose their share of the electorate, and those whose political identities were formed during less auspicious times for the GOP increase their share, the future looks troubling for the Republican Party.