The broad increase in taxes likely to occur Tuesday is highly unusual by historical standards.
Based on data from the Treasury Department and Moody’s Analytics, here’s a chart showing, for tax increases since 1940, the magnitude of the tax hike in the year following enactment as a percentage of gross domestic product. The three red bars represent options for what will happen starting tomorrow.
But tax hikes have been a rarity recently. Also drawing on data from the Treasury study, here is a chart showing the one-year revenue effects, as a percentage of GDP, of different policy actions.