One paradox of the Obama Presidency is how it has retained the support of young people and minorities despite the damage its policies have done to their economic prospects. In his latest attempt to increase the minority youth jobless rate, President Obama is proposing to raise the minimum wage.
In his State of the Union address, Mr. Obama proposed an increase to $9 an hour by 2015 from $7.25, and then indexing the minimum to inflation. “Employers may get a more stable workforce due to reduced turnover and increased productivity,” the White House says. No doubt employers are slamming their foreheads wondering why they didn’t think of that.
And don’t worry about lost jobs. “A range of economic studies,” a White House memo assures, “show that modestly raising the minimum wage increases earnings and reduces poverty without measurably reducing employment.” Note the shifty adverbs, “modestly” and “measurably,” which can paper over a lot of economic damage.
In the real world, setting a floor under the price of labor creates winners and losers. Some workers will get a $1.75 raise. Great. But others—typically the least educated and skilled—will be priced out of the job market and their pay won’t rise to $9. It will be zero.
University of California at Irvine economist David Neumark has looked at more than 100 major academic studies on the minimum wage, and he says the White House claim of de minimis job losses “grossly misstates the weight of the evidence.” About 85% of the studies “find a negative employment effect on low-skilled workers.”