Charles Lipson | Three Clear Messages From Tuesday’s Primaries

via Real Clear Politics:


Three Clear Messages From Tuesday’s Primaries

by Charles Lipson | March 9, 2016

1) Donald Trump is very, very close to clinching the nomination.

–Marco Rubio is toast. That’s true even if he wins Florida. He hasn’t racked up victories in big states, and he’s fading, not rising. Ask not for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for Marco.

–John Kasich has no path to the nomination, even if he wins Ohio. His only path was a deadlocked convention, and that won’t happen unless Trump falls down a manhole. Kasich has waged a decent, honorable campaign, has extensive experience governing, and knows how to work with Congress. Trumps appreciates those assets, knows they complement his own, and must be thinking of Kasich for VP. The Ohio governor won’t blow that by turning negative.

–Ted Cruz is still standing but he has a hidden weakness. And it’s devastating. He has not been able to expand beyond his solid base of evangelicals and ideological conservatives (whether they are economic conservatives or values conservatives). In a normal year, that might be enough for Cruz to win the primaries. Not this year. Cruz has won a lot of delegates, but if you can’t win the Mississippi Republican primary, you aren’t going to win in the Northeast.

2) Hillary Clinton’s loss in Michigan won’t stop her steady march to the nomination.

3) The electorate is furious.

All across the country, voters are saying, “We’re mad as hell and we aren’t gonna take it anymore.” That’s why the most damning indictment this year is to be called an “establishment candidate.” The second most damning is to receive Mitt Romney’s endorsement. If there was a ballot option for “tar-and-feather the lousy SOBs,” it would win in a landslide. Tuesday night proved it again. (Read More)


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